My apologies for the delay this week, but last night I got the privilege of dealing with LaGuardia. Luckily enough for me I wasn't in Terminal A, but the 8 hour delay was fun to deal with. Not going to complain though, it could have been much worse.
If you want to check out my specific ownership projections, here is the link to my article on Gridiron Experts.
On to the games!
Minnesota @ Carolina
Miles Sanders spots a 16% target share which is good considering this unit can't run block for him. Sanders is questionable heading into this weekend though as are 2 of his linemen.
Alexander Mattison is but a fumble away from losing his starting gig.
Jonathan Mingo is dealing with a concussion. Careful with this WR room, Mingo was looking like the alpha for a bit there.
Thielen, Chark, and Marshall are all in play for me this week against the Viking secondary which is bad again for the 35th year in row.
The Panther secondary hasn't looked all that great either. Also, what else is Minnesota going to do other than throw the ball?
I'm going to enjoy Kirk Cousins going somewhere else in 2024 for tons of dollars while the Vikings end up with some lesser QB instead of paying for Kirky.
Washington @ Philadelphia
Someone on the Eagles should have a good day in DFS. AJ Brown was force fed targets after whining about being uninvolved even though Philly was 2 - 0. The Eagles will go with whatever matchup they feel is better, and then Hurts will vulture the TDs by the patented "Fall into the End Zone" play the use at the goal line every time.
The Eagles defense is allowing only 48.3 rush yards per game. Yes, that's likely because teams have had to throw to keep with up them, but it's also inflated because they played the Vikings who accidentally ran the ball once in that game.
Commander pass catchers look unowned, but someone is going to be nabbing fantasy points in garbage time.
Los Angeles Rams @ Indianapolis Colts
Be wary of Puka Nacua who came down to Earth last week. Cooper Kupp looks to be coming back soon.
That's not this week though, Colts outside CBs couldn't guard my kitchen table let alone NFL caliber receivers. Nacua looks to be the highest owned of the group, but I'd argue Tutu Atwell is in play also.
Zach Moss looks to the man for Indy as he was out their for 76% of the offensive snaps. The Rams can be run on so I don't mind the play there at all.
Michael Pittman was out there for 100% of the offensive snaps and was targeted 12 times last week, but the Rams appear to better against the pass than they are against the run.
Anthony Richardson should do well on the ground here until he leaves the game with an injury.
Miami @ Buffalo
The ownership projections in this one do not look like I would expect them too with this being the highest total on the slate. Josh Allen does appear to be the highest owned QB, but I would have expected more double digits ownership numbers on guys like Davis, Waddle and Mostert. We'll see if that changes.
Two weeks ago the Patriots showed us why divisional games can be tough for ceiling fantasy performances.
Tyreek Hill is averaging 11 targets a game over his last 3 matchups with the Bills.
Jaylen Waddle should be active on Sunday and makes for a nice pivot off Hill, though it's risky.
Denver @ Chicago
If Fields can't do it this week, it might be over. That was an embarrassing performance by Denver in week 3. Yeah this is a get right spot against the Bears, but the Broncos can be run on, and Fields' designed runs increased last week against the Chiefs. Fields shouldn't come in heavily owned on Sunday.
Javonte Williams HAS to do it this week as well. Time is already running out on the Broncos in 2023, so not setting Williams loose against the bears might be first step toward a losing game plan. Williams is coming in with some ownership,13% in GPPS which I'm not sure I trust, but it appears others feel as I do.
Russell Wilson and his pass catchers look unowned.
Baltimore @ Cleveland
Why do I feel like this game was already played this year?
I'd expect a solid day from Jerome Ford. Last week he lucked into a good fantasy day by randomly catching a TD on blown coverage and a fortunately timed rushing score. He averaged 1.8 yards a carry last week. Ironically, his YPC should go up this week, but I doubt he gets to 17 DK points again. Kareem Hunt is here too.
The Browns defense is good, I like them as my DST in GPPs this weekend. Lamar looks lost in this offense.
Overall, should be a low scoring affair in Week 4.
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
Marshon Lattimore v Mike Evans - Round 11.
Alvin Kamara is back for week 4. I'm currently debating starting him in seasonal. While he may not go out and immediately be the Kamara of old, the Saints missed him more than I thought they would.
Winston seemed to prefer peppering Michael Thomas with targets after Carr went down in Week 3, whereas prior to that Carr preferred Olave. Something to consider once we find out which QB starts in this one.
Baker sure seems to love throwing to Evans. I'm trying to think if Baker ever had a 6'5" 225 lbs receiver as good as Evans to throw to before. DJ Moore? He's 6 feet. Odell or Jarvis Landry? Both 5'11." Hmmm.
Divisional matchup. Should be hard fought. I picked someone to win this game, but I forget which one.
Pittsburgh @ Houston
Houston surprised a lot of folks last week. As soon as that game started though, I thought: "This is a trap game for the Jags."
The Steelers are allowing the third most rush yards per game, but the Texan offensive line is also banged up.
Najee Harris might be about to lose his job. If you have Harris in seasonal, I'd urge you to pick up Warren before he's potentially a popular waiver add for Week 5.
Tank Dell looks for real, but I wouldn't expect monster games every week.
Cincinnati @ Tennessee
The Titans are a pass funnel defense so Mr. Chase and Mr. Higgins are on my radar here. Heck, Tyler Boyd is too.
Yes, Joe Burrow's calf injury persists, but he's still good enough to exploit a favorable matchup.
Bengals are having a real tough time stopping the run, might be time we finally see King Henry, who doesn't look to be carrying that much ownership.
Las Vegas @ Los Angeles Chargers
This too feels like a game that has already been played this season.
Mike Williams is done for the year, so now it's Josh Palmer SZN. He took over for Williams after the injury, so I'm not sure getting cute with Quentin Johnston is on the table. Johnston remains a deep threat only.
Justin Herbert is going to be throwing a ton this year, I'll be playing him in DFS.
Keenan Allen should come in with ownership.
Austin Ekeler is Doubtful for the Chargers. Joshua Kelley is looking at another double-digit workload, but he has yet to capitalize on that opportunity. The Raiders are allowing 127.3 rushing yards per game.
Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers are totally in play against this secondary. Looks like the public knows it too considering their ownership numbers. If Jimmy G were to miss, I think Hoyer would be capable of throwing to either of these guys as well.
The Chargers are allowing way more passing yards than rush yards, so Jacobs could face a game script that caps his ceiling.
Arizona @ San Francisco
Surprisingly, the Cardinals have been in every game this year. The Denver Broncos are closer to landing Caleb Williams than Arizona is at the moment.
The Cards are bleeding yards on the ground, so CMC is totally in play. A 20 point outing is probably the floor here.
Purdy seems to throw for 250 and 2 TDs every week.
There's a chance Deebo doesn't play or is limited, additionally Jauan Jennings looks to be out. Brandon Aiyuk will gather ownership if Deebo misses, George Kittle will gather less. Kittle has scored 5 TDs in his last 3 matchups against Arizona.
Hollywood Brown is having a much better season than I anticipated. The 49ers are more vulnerable against the pass than the run, but those stats could be skewed due to familiar game scripts of 49ers' opponents playing from behind.
New England @ Dallas
If Dallas can lose to Arizona, we have to entertain the possibility that they can lose to New England. Unlikely, but possible. Either way, I'm not expecting too many fireworks in this one. How's a 20 - 19 final sound?
Dallas is allowing the 8th most rushing yards per game.
Zeke Elliott will score at least one touchdown here.
Rhamondre Stevenson is looking at low ownership, which could be a mistake if he goes over 100 with a score.
The Patriots are being stingy on defense. Dak Prescott is probably in for a rough outing.
Rico Dowdle is going to continue to be a thing, and will be Waiver Priority #1 if Tony Pollard where to ever get injured.
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