Hey all and welcome to week 10 of the NFL season! DFS has continued to go the way they have been going for me over the last few weeks, which is to say that I’ve been making a little bit of $, but have yet to hit the big score. Money's money though, so I won't complain. However, I'm having a real good feeling about this week, which can only mean one thing: I'm going to lose all my money.
Onto the games!
Cleveland @ Baltimore
The collective thought amongst DFS players is that there will not be many points to be had in this matchup. That's opportunity.
No one is going to own Zay Flowers or Mark Andrews this weekend, especially Flowers who has been disappointing chalk in recent weeks. He's also not been great against man coverage, which is what the Browns predominantly employ. The Ravens offense is harder to stop over the course of an entire game than the Browns offense is. Someone is going to have to catch the ball for Baltimore.
Baltimore is allowing an average of 4 yards per carry, so I expect Cleveland to attempt to establish the run with Ford and Hunt. However, Cleveland is missing both starting tackles. I like the Ravens DST as a sneaky GPP option.
San Francisco @ Jacksonville
The high total of 45 should make this an attractive spot for DFS players.
The Jaguars are allowing only 79 rush yards per game and just 3.6 yards per carry.
At $9200 on DraftKings, CMC likely needs 2 scores and 28 or more fantasy points to make the optimal lineup. If you read the previous bullet point, you'll notice that it's unlikely. (DISCLAIMER: CMC will probably score 3 TDs on Sunday.)
However, the Jags are yielding 263.5 passing yards per game.
Deebo Samuel should be back to help the passing offense, but the statistics this season favor Brandon Aiyuk who excels against zone coverage. Deebo does have nice historic numbers vs zone too.
The Jags are averaging 2 seconds per drop back, the fastest in the NFL. That's good practice for the pass rush that they will be up against on Sunday. As such, I expect quick passes to Kirk, Engram and Etienne.
Tennessee @ Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers seem to enjoy giving up fantasy points to opposing QBs and WRs as they are the 2nd worst team against both positions.
They are also one of the worst teams in the league at getting off the field on third down.
With Treylon Burks out, Kyle Philips or Nick Westbrooke-Ikhine or both will be in line for more targets.The Tampa slot CB is Christian Izien who has continued to allow receptions and yards a-plenty. He was the one supposedly guarding Tank Dell last week.
DHop should see some ownership on Sunday.
This is tough matchup for Derrick Henry, especially with the presence of Vita Vea.
The Titans are not all that great against WRs themselves as they are giving up 15 catches a game and 177 yards to opposing wideouts.
They are also yielding 114 rushing yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry. This balanced vulnerability should translate well to the balanced attack of the Bucs. However, the Titans are giving up the fewest receiving fantasy points to RBs.
Green Bay @ Pittsburgh
Diontae Johnson has reclaimed his huge role in this offense (10 targets a game and over 30% target share), and his DK salary of $5400 is near criminal.
However, this is a better running matchup than passing matchup for Pittsburgh, so Najee Harris is attracting some ownership after he showed he wasn't completely dead two Thursdays ago.
The Steelers are allowing 133.1 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry. The Packers have to utilize Aaron Jones if they want to win (big if though).
Pittsburgh has the 25th ranked pass defense, so someone on Green Bay should have a good day. I'd bet on Romeo Doubs if Christian Watson misses again.
New Orleans @ Minnesota
Justin Jefferson has been practicing this week. Playing on Sunday seems unlikely, but not out of the realm of possibilities.
If JJ misses, start all of the TJ Hockenson. Dobbs targeted TJ on over 40% of his throws last week.
Jordan Addison is likely shadowed by Marshon Lattimore.
Cam Akers hit IR, so it's the Alexander Mattison show again. The Saints defense will be a formidable challenge for Minnesota.
The Vikings are a heavy blitzing team. Derek Carr target Chris Olave frequently when blitzed. MT comes in second in that category.
Third in that category is Alvin Kamara who probably won't have a ton of success rushing, but the Saints could elect to pepper him with targets against this blitzing defense.
The heavy blitz likely means less deep shots, so Rashid Shaheed will not be in my player pool in week 10.
Taysom Hill is now a consistent thing at TE and is being priced as such. He literally plays all of QB, RB, WR, and TE.
The Saints have been operating at a fast pace for weeks now and are top 3 in the league in plays per game. What's interesting is that Joshua Dobbs and the Vikings played fast last week too, albeit they were in catch-up mode late in the game. This could have some sneaky shootout potential, but I'm not betting my house on it or anything.
Houston @ Cincinnati
We have a 46.5 total in this game. It should be a popular stack considering the general affinity for Burrow and Chase as well as the performance by CJ Stroud and the Texans last week against Tampa.
Tee Higgins was looking like a popular DFS add, but he isn't going to play. Instead, Tyler Boyd should now gather so ownership.
The Texans are top 10 in the league in terms of passing yards allowed per game, and their defense is suggestive of one that should be a pass funnel. On the ground they are allowing only 97 rush yards a game which is good for a top 10 defense in the league in that category. They also allow but 3.5 yards per carry which is one of the best in all of football.
The Bengals, however, love to give up yards on the ground. They are allowing an average of 129 yards per game and 5 yards per carry. I would say this bodes well for the Texans if Devin Singletary wasn't the one in the backfield. This, however, is a better matchup for him than it was last week when he was chalky, so his ownership should be lower and he received but only a $400 price increase on DraftKings. If he were to fall into the end zone once or twice, that might be enough to be contrarian and vault us up the standings in GPPs.
Nico Collins and Robert Woods are likely to miss. Noah Brown should see more targets, and John Metchie becomes a potential DFS punt.
Atlanta @ Arizona
Under Taylor Heinicke, the Falcons offense has started playing a lot faster in terms of pace. They have also been throwing more. Careful though, this is Arthur Smith.
Despite Heinicke's gunslinger ways, everything points to the Falcons doing what they want to do, which is run the ball with 5 different guys. The Cardinals are allowing 128 rushing yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry. They've also given up the 3rd most fantasy points per game to RBs.
Kyler Murray comes back this week. I wonder how much game film he watched in preparation for this matchup. He probably just asked ChatGPT to do it for him.
It wouldn't surprise me if he was too lazy to even do that though.
Hollywood had some really good numbers with Kyler last season. Brown's ownership this weekend are looking high.
James Conner might be cleared to play as well this weekend. It's not a great matchup, but Kyler threw to Conner a bunch as well last season and there really won't be competition for touches in this Arizona backfield.
Detroit @ LA Chargers
At 49 points, this is the highest total on the slate and the game that everyone will be attacking
Jared Goff and the Lions historically play better in their domed building in Detroit than they do on the road, but this season the Lions are first in the league in terms of plays per game over the last 3 weeks with 74. They are also averaging 7 more plays per game on the road vs home.
The Chargers are trying to play slower ball, but at home they average 66 plays per game.
The Lions have had the luxury of preparing for this matchup for 2 weeks. Amon-Ra will continue to run many of his routes out of the slot, which sets him up to take advantage of Pro Football Focus's 89th ranked CB in Ja’Sir Taylor.
Sam Laporta is in play as well. The Chargers are not great at covering the middle of the field.
The Chargers are still allowing the most passing yards per game at 286, and Zach Wilson did throw for 263. Their defense is better vs the run, but the Lions will test them as David Montgomery likely returns in this matchup, and many are theorizing that the backfield will see a 50/50 split between him and Gibbs. That remains to be seen for me. Either way, playing either Lion RB is risky in fantasy this week.
The Chargers are living and dying on the arm of Justin Herbert. Detroit is the 2nd best team in the league in rushing yards allowed per game with just 77, so the Chargers will likely take to the air. Keenan Allen's 30% target share is attractive in this one.
Austin Ekeler has been 2nd on the team in targets over the last two weeks as the Chargers didn't have Mike Williams or Josh Palmer active.
Washington @ Seattle
With Chase Young and Montez Sweat no longer rushing the passer for Washington, Geno Smith should have ample time to throw the ball.
The Commanders rank top 3 in yards, TDs, and fantasy points per game to outside WRs, which puts DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in favorable matchups on both sides of the field. JSN is also attracting some ownership interest as he will be operating largely out of the slot. All 3 receivers are in good spots, so paying attention to ownership numbers to determine your path is something to consider.
The Seahawks are playing some slow football right now, however. On the season they are averaging 58 plays per games. Over the last 3 weeks they are averaging 53, which is good for dead last in the league. The Commanders, however, are playing quite fast. They are averaging 71 a game over the last 3 weeks including 77 last Sunday against the Patriots.
Sam Howell, somehow, is 2nd in the entire NFL in passing yards.
The Seahawks are allowing 231 passing yards per game.
There is a god chance of rain throughout this game. As long as it isn't torrential, it should be of minimal effect. It could scare other DFS players off this game too. Bring it on.
NY Giants @ Dallas
The Cowboys DST is going to be a popular play on Sunday. Remember what happened week 1? Just don't expect an exact replay of that one.
This should be a get right spot for Tony Pollard. He'll be a popular play in DFS against the Gmen and their 4.6 yards per carry average.
I'm not going after the Cowboy passing game like I have in recent weeks. It just doesn't look like they will need to throw in this game.
Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00. And join the Discord for updates on Sunday morning.
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