Hey all and welcome to week 11 of the NFL season! As I correctly predicted, I was feeling really good about week 10, and when I typically feel that good, it all goes to shit. As such DFS did not treat me well last week. However, I did win all of my seasonal matchups, so that's a plus. We got some pretty big mismatches this week and what looks to be some overwhelming Cardinals chalk.
Onto the games!
Dallas @ Carolina
This one is looking like a sequel to the horror movie that was Dallas against the GMen last week. The Boys are 10.5 favorites which seems low to me. I was surprised they didn't open at 2 TD favorites.
Luckily I have zero Tony Pollard shares in seasonal leagues. What in God's name is happening in this backfield? One explanation is that the Boys and Marty Schottenheimer have been trying to execute an up tempo high volume passing attack all season and have finally found the secret sauce to getting it going. A 34% target share to CeeDee Lamb was the answer all along.
At around 13% ownership, DFS players are looking like they are willing to wade into the Tony Pollard waters one more time in this matchup that screams to just give the ball to RBs. Rico Dowdle, who's role has continued to increase every week, is looking like he will be barely owned.
If you're playing someone on the Panthers, it's probably Adam Thielen or maybe Jonathan Mingo. The Cowboys defense should have another fun day against a sub-par offense.
Chicago @ Detroit
With a 47.5 point total, Vegas thinks there will be points scored here.
Even though Chicago is being quite stingy about allowing RB production, Detroit should eventually turn to their run game once the game script is on their side, but they will likely build a lead with their passing game, specifically with Amon-Ra.
Justin Fields is likely returning in this matchup. The Lions gave up 38 points to the Chargers last week, were lucky enough to play the Raiders in Josh McDaniels' final game, and were blown out the building by the Ravens the week before that. This could be a sneaky immediate get right spot for Fields, especially if he uses his legs.
In the 5 healthy games Justin Fields has played, DJ Moore has posted PPR outings of 4.5, 19.4, 13.1, 30.1, and 52.0. Moore is looking at 12% ownership in week 11.
Cole Kmet will likely be popular since there's like 4 viable tight ends playing on Sunday.
Las Vegas @ Miami
The last 4 QBs that the Raiders have played are named Jordan Love, Tyson Bagent, Zach Wilson, and Tommy DeVito.
Tyreek and Waddle will be going up against a secondary that includes Marcus Peters who in previous matchups against Tyreek has given up 10-215-2, 5-77-1 and 11-190-2 receiving lines to him. This secondary also has Jackorian Bennet and Amik Robertson, Pro Football Focus' 122nd and 86th ranked CBs.
Over the last 4 weeks, the Raiders are giving up an average of 156 rushing yards per game. The Miami Dolphins are averaging the most rushing yards before contact in the NFL. Breakaway runs from either Mostert or Achane or both could be on the table this Sunday.
Davante Adams might come under 2% ownership. No respect.
New York Giants @ Washington
Another 300+ passing yards performance is possible for Howell against this Giants defense.
Jahan Dotson and Terry McLaurin were basically nonexistent against Seattle's zone coverage in week 10. The Giants play man coverage at the highest rate in the league, which should be good news for Washington's 2 perimeter WRs.
The Giants are allowing close to 130 yards rushing and over 4.5 yards per carry. Brian Robinson is in smash spot.
The Giants are without RT Evan Neal and LG Mark Glowinski, and are also not good to begin with. Even though Sweat and Young are gone, the Commanders should still make life difficult for Goodfella Tommy DeVito. (You got the gif, right?)
I don't have much good to say about the Giants offense. Saquon will be low owned at least.
Arizona @ Houston
With one of the highest totals on the slate (47.5), many DFS players should be gravitating to this matchup. In fact, 5 of the 15 highest projected owned players are Cardinals. That feels like a bit much.
Houston’s secondary employs predominantly zone coverage, which is where Michael Wilson has had his best outings this season. He was second highest in first read rate in Kyler's return last week.
Trey McBride was first, however, and unless Pat Freiermuth plays, will be extreme chalk at the TE position on Sunday.
James Conner returned as well last week but was not highly involved in the passing game, which is where he might need to be involved in order to have a ceiling game as the Texans have yet to allow a 100 yard rusher this season.
Rondale Moore was more of a focus in the Cardinal passing attack, but Hollywood is a big play away from being quite relevant on Sunday.
Dameon Pierce is likely to miss this matchup, so Singletary is a popular option despite his modest salary increase. Arizona is yielding over 125 yards a game and over 4 yards per carry.
CJ Stroud now has the 2nd most passing yards on the season.
Nico Collins has been practicing and is likely to return, but Noah Brown has not practiced on Wednesday and Thursday as he's been dealing with a knee ailment. The Texans could have a full disposal of WRs on Sunday, including TE Dalton Schultz, which could make picking and choosing which pass catchers to stack with Stroud challenging.
Tennessee @ Jacksonville
The Titans have lost LG Daniel Brunskill and LT Andre Dillard. This makes an already mediocre unit much worse. It helps to explain Derrick Henry's dip in production. It also means you should start the Jaguars defense this week.
Titans CBs Sean Murphy-Bunting and Anthony Kendall have not been practicing, and they're secondary is not all that good to begin with.
Calvin Ridley's lack of production has coincided with Zay Jones being out, which he will continue to be on Sunday as he continues to battle both a knee injury and domestic abuse charges. Should that trend continue, it would make sense to pivot to Christian Kirk.
Evan Engram should have ownership as well since he's one of those 4 TEs I mentioned earlier.
CB Tyson Campbell is out for the Jaguars who are already 12th worse against WRs. If Tennessee has offensive success, it will likely be through their passing game.
Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
This matchup has got me feeling like:
Kenny Pickett vs Dorian Thompson-Robinson! 🤢
With DTR under center for the Browns, I expect Cleveland to lean on the run game even more in week 11. Jerome Ford has had 43 touches in the last 2 weeks, and that was with Deshaun Watson at QB. The Browns are also running the most plays (73) over the last 3 weeks, and the Steelers are giving up over 130 rush yards per game and over 4 yards per carry.
On the season the Steelers are 6th worst against WRs. Someone has to catch it for Cleveland, right? I'd bet on Amari Cooper in that scenario.
The Browns are one of the best teams vs the run, so I won't be playing Najee nor Warren.
Cleveland is also quite good against WRs, but Diontae Johnson's value to the Steelers is immense. His target share makes him quite valuable in PPR formats.
Should Pat Freiermuth be activated off IR, he'll be chalk as he's $2500 on DraftKings.
LA Chargers @ Green Bay
Green Bay just allowed the tandem of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren to eclipse 200 total yards against them. Give me some Austin Ekeler.
At least one of Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, or Jayden Reed should be able to put together a good day against the Charger secondary that allows the 5th most fantasy points to WRs.
The Chargers are also the 2nd worst team against QBs. If there was ever a get right spot for Jordan Love, this is it.
The Chargers DST might under 1% owned in DFS. Should Jordan Love not be able to get the passing game going, the Chargers DST makes for an intriguing DFS play.
Tampa Bay @ San Francisco
The Tampa Bay secondary is banged up as Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean are both dealing with injuries. The Bucs have been allowing fantasy points to opposing pass catchers and have become a pass-funnel defense. This should be the second week in a row that the Niners lean on their passing game, so Brock Purdy is definitely in play again.
I'll be monitoring George Kittle's ownership numbers. He doesn't typically have big outing when both Aiyuk and Deebo play, however.
Of course you can go with CMC here too. If he gets to a ceiling performance though, it is likely through his involvement in the passing game, and he'll likely need multiple scores.
If I were to run this one back, Mike Evans is the clear choice.
NY Jets @ Buffalo
Both Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are looking a sub 4% ownership.
Yes, this is a tough matchup that features 2 of the best CBs in football. However, there are many intangibles to consider:
They have game film on this matchup already.
They're probably livid about their loss to Denver.
They just let go off OC Ken Dorsey and have interim Joe Brady, who probably should have had a shot at OC in other offenses prior to this, now at the helm.
Josh Allen, statistically speaking, is the best player in all of fantasy. I could really see him using his legs in this one, but still count on at least one INT from Josh.
I fully expect the Jets to lean on Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. Hall is the more likely success story since he only has to take the ball from Zach Wilson as opposed to catching his passes.
Seattle @ LA Rams
Cooper Kupp needs to win his matchup against CB Devon Witherspoon for the Rams to have a chance to win. Careful though, only 2 teams have given up fewer fantasy points per game to the WR position over the last month than Seattle. If looking back to the week 1 matchup, neither player participated in that contest.
Darrell Henderson will get one last chance at RB1 status before Kyren Williams' likely return next week. The Seahawks are the 5th or 6th worst team against opposing RBs (depending on the scoring used) in terms of fantasy points allowed per game. I'm not expecting a ton of production here, but at 5K and 4% ownership, there are worse options.
DK Metcalf has had some decent games against the Rams, including this past week 1 where had 3 grabs for 47 and a TD, but the Rams are a top 10 team against WRs.
Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00. And join the Discord for updates on Sunday morning.
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