Hey all and welcome to week 12 of the NFL season! I guess it isn't a true welcome since we are 4 games deep at this point. I'm a little scared this week as there are 2 matchups that are screaming at me to roster the players in. This can only mean that they will disappoint.
Should you desire to read my ownership breakdown on Gridiron, click here. Onto the games!
Jaguars @ Texans
This is one of the aforementioned matchups. The Texans are one of 2 teams on the Sunday slate who have been playing at a top 10 pace lately. All the other top teams either played on Thanksgiving or are in a prime time or Black Friday matchup this week. Does this necessarily anything? Maybe. Maybe not. Just something I feel we should consider as we head into Sunday.
With 67.7 plays per game, the Texans are top 10 in the NFL in terms of pace of play over the last 3 weeks.
The Jaguars ran 69 plays last week, increasing their offensive tempo which happened to coincide with one of their best offensive days of the year.
The Jags play a ton of zone coverage, and CJ Stroud has become one of the best QBs in the entire NFL against this coverage. The Jags are also 6th worst against the QB position.
Schultz, Collins and Dell are all in good spots. Noah Brown will not play. Tank Dell has double digit target in all 3 previous games. He's going to be a 1st or 2nd round seasonal pick next year if he keeps this up.
I'm not sure I can play the Texan backfield. Singletary's been hot but has a price increase, Pierce might return, Coach Boone is getting ownership. I'm out on the Texan RBs.
Trevor Lawrence, who up until last week was being forced to throw the ball at one of the fastest rates in the NFL, had his cleanest pocket of the season against the Titans. This enabled him to get the ball down the field to Ridley for a change. Don't expect 2 more rushing TDs from Lawrence, but he should find success in this matchup. The Texans are vulnerable to slot WRs, so this might be a Christian Kirk or Evan Engram week.
Panthers @ Titans
Both of these defenses are so bad that it might make Bryce Young and Will Levis viable this weekend.
Derrick Henry is probably going to do something here. At $6400 on DraftKings, I don't mind it in GPPs.
As of this writing, I don't know if Adam Thielen will be highly owned or not, but he is in play. You could go to someone like Jonathan Mingo or DJ Chark if you think the Titans defense is that bad (they are), but it's not like Young and Carolina passing attack has been good outside of Thielen this year.
Steelers @ Bengals
It is the Jake Browning era in Cincinnati now.
If I'm a backup QB making his first career start against a defense that gives up the 7th most fantasy points to WRs, then I'd be looking Ja'Marr Chase's way a lot. The Steelers are the 7th worst team against WRs.
The Steelers are quite good against the run. I'm sure Cincy will try to establish it to make life easier for Browning, but I won't be playing Bro Mixon on Sunday.
The Bengals, however, bleed points to opposing RBs. Who's that going to be though, Warren or Najee?
Cincinnati's DST is looking to be a popular play against Kenny Pickett.
Patriots @ Giants
The only thing I am really interested in here is Demario Douglas. He'll be spending most of the matchup against slot CB Cordale Flott who is helping the Gmen to allow the 5th most yards per game to opposing slot WRs.
The Giants are not good against the run, but playing Rhamondre will be tough considering Bill will probably hand it to Zeke if they ever make it to the goal line.
Also, I said "Bill" there because we don't know who will be the starting QB for the Patriots on Sunday...or if that person will stay in the game.
Belichick historically makes life difficult for rookie QBs though, 13 - 6 final with the only TD coming from the Patriots DST, which will likely be the highest owned defense in week 12.
Buccaneers @ Colts
The Bucs are the 3rd worst team against opposing QBs, and they are banged up at CB as Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean have been dealing with injuries. Gardner Minshew is in play.
The Buccaneers have a solid run defense, but they may be without 2 of their linebackers this week, so Jonathan Taylor shouldn't be ignored entirely. He's coming in as the highest owned RB, but I just don't trust it. The matchup just isn't that good,
The Colts have consistently shown themselves to be vulnerable against opposing perimeter WRs, which makes Mike Evans as a run back or as a one-off attractive. You could attempt Baker stacks with Evans and one of Otton, Godwin, Palmer or White as well. The Colts are 4th worst against opposing RBs.
Saints @ Falcons
A Falcon pass catcher is going to have a good day. Who that will be is anybody's guess. The Falcon offensive line is 3rd best in the league with a pressure rate of 23.0%. The Saints defensive line is middle of the league in pass rush.
Further good news for the Falcons is that CB Marshon Lattimore is going to miss this game. I would say that benefits Drake London.
The Falcons play a zone heavy scheme in their secondary. Against such coverages is where the Saints have shown a propensity to take deep shots to Rashid Shaheed.
Michael Thomas is going to miss this game. This opens the door for more targets to Olave and Kamara. A.T. Perry is also getting some DFS interest here.
Don't forget that Taysom Hill is a thing. When people forget, he ruins days.
Browns @ Broncos
It looks like we have full on timeshare between Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt with each getting 12 - 15 touches a game. Ford did take over the goal line work last weekend, but his fantasy relevant day ended with quarter one. Ceiling games from either Ford or Hunt are unlikely. However, both have solid floors.
Surprisingly, the Browns are bottom 10 in the NFL against RBs. Javonte Williams is getting some ownership in DFS this weekend. I'm not sure I agree with that as Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin continue to get work. A ceiling game for Javonte just doesn't appear to be there.
This game has one of the lowest on the slate, but the Browns continued to play at a fast pace with DTR under center. If we think he makes mistakes at a fast pace, the Broncos DST is interesting.
Courtland Sutton probably catches another TD this week.
Rams @ Cardinals
Cooper Kupp is dealing with an ankle issue, but made it back to practice on Thursday. This is a shame as Puka Nacua would have been in a smash spot against CBs Marco Wilson and Antonio Hamilton. Wilson is Pro Football Focus' 110th ranked CB and Hamilton has been bleeding fantasy points to WRs of late. Combined, the 2 of them are averaging 24 fantasy points per game to the WR position, so I guess both Kupp and Nacua are in play, I just have a problem guessing which one.
You could stack Matthew Stafford with both of his pass catchers as his offensive line has been playing better and this is a good matchup, but I'm not sure Stafford can outscore all of Hurts, Allen, Lawrence or Stroud this week.
Kupp re-aggravating his ankle injury is possible.
Kyren Williams might return in this one. I am hopeful he gets a full workload against a team that can be had by RBs, but I still have Sean McVay RB PTSD.
Kyler is looking less owned this week. Did a new COD come out for Thanksgiving?
Trey McBride still looks like one of the highest owned TEs as he has not been priced up enough.
Greg Dortch started getting targets again last week. I'm not sure anyone has noticed.
Bills @ Eagles
This is the other matchup that is screaming to be played.
The Bills will be without CBs Tre White and CBs Kaiir Elam. On top of that, CBs Taron Johnson and Dane Jackson may miss this matchup or be limited due to injuries of their own. You don't need me to tell you that AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are quite viable in week 12, but I guess just did anyway.
The Eagles are 4th worst against QBs, the best against RBs, and the worst against WRs, so the Bills WR group is a good bet for solid production. I would include Dalton Kincaid as part of that group as well. Josh Allen won't be as low owned as last week, but that makes sense since the matchup is better.
The problem with stacking this game is that most of the players are expensive, so getting Allen or Hurts with Brown, Diggs and Smith all in the same lineup will be tough. Dallas Goedert will likely miss again, so I could see DFS players going with Jack Stoll as a means to try to squeeze in the more expensive studs.
Only caveat: rain could play into this game.
Chiefs @ Raiders
Sneakily, the Raiders are top 10 in the league in rushing yards before contact and their offensive line is a top 5 run blocking unit overall. The Chiefs defensive line has not been playing as well against the run lately. They're allowing 1.6 rushing yards before contact, 3rd worst in the NFL. Hello, Josh Jacobs.
Mahomes, Kelce, and to a degree Rashee Rice remain expensive, but pretty much all of the Chiefs pass catchers are now priced below 4K...because they suck.
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