Hey all and welcome to week 13 of the NFL season, a.k.a. Zach Moss SZN. News about Jonathan Taylor needing surgery didn't break until after the salary sites posted their tournaments, so Moss is looking at having a super low salary and perhaps 20 opportunities on Sunday. In cash games he'll be 80 or 90% owned and in GPPs he may top 50% ownership. Do we play him? Do we fade? That is the Hamlet-esque question of Week 13.
Should you desire to read my ownership breakdown on Gridiron, click here. Onto the games!
Dolphins @ Commanders
Many are thinking this is going to be a walk in the park for Miami. I'm not so sure.
Jack Del Rio and defensive backs coach Brent Vieselmeyer were fired into the sun this past week, so HC Ron Rivera is about to take over play calling duties on the defensive side of the ball. Whatever defense the Commanders roll out on Sunday, there will be no game film for, so it’s nigh impossible for the Dolphins to be fully prepared for what they are about to face.
That being said, they are unlikely to face something overly formidable, but I do think they’ll take their time as they figure out what the opposing defense is trying to do. I have no doubt that Mike McDaniel and company will do just that, but does that mean a ceiling game for someone like Tyreek Hill who is $9600 and could be owned by over a quarter of the field?
Jaylen Waddle could be a nice pivot here.
The Miami RBs are also looking lower owned.
Lions @ Saints
Over the last 4 weeks, the Lions have been the 2nd worst team against QBs.
They’ve also been the worst team against WRs.
The Saints are also top 3 in plays per game over the last month.
Chris Olave is likely to play, but Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed will probably miss. A.T. Perry might come through after a disappointing week 12, and something named Lynn Bowden is being bandied about in fantasy circles.
Juwan Johnson’s is also getting ownership. However, yet again, Taysom Hill is being ignored.
Mind the Jamaal Williams revenge narrative this week.
Tough matchup for Alvin Kamara, but PPR leagues should benefit from his involvement in the passing game. Kendre Miller missing this game also helps.
Over the last month the Saints are yielding the 7th most fantasy points to WRs. Hello, Amon-Ra!
New Orleans is both 11th against the run in the last month and on the season. Gibbs and Monty should be played with confidence, but Monty is lower owned in DFS.
Cam Jordan may miss this game or be limited as he is battling an ankle injury.
Chargers @ Patriots
Keenan Allen has a 33% target share and the Patriots secondary has not been good. JC Jackson’s best years seem to be behind him. I also have Keenan at 11.6% ownership, which makes him a decent pivot off the chalkier Tyreek Hill. Just make sure Allen plays, he’s missed practice this week with a quadriceps issue. Be careful here because, since it's the lowly Patriots, I can totally see the Chargers limiting Allen.
The Chargers have been horrific against opposing pass attacks, but the Patriots have a horrific passing attack.
Hunter Henry revenge game! The Chargers are also not good against the TE position.
The Chargers are allowing the 6th most fantasy points to the RB position, and Zeke Elliot is dealing with an injury. Could be a good spot for Rhamondre Stevenson.
Cardinals @ Steelers
Marquise Brown and Michael Wilson may not play in this game. All of the Greg Dortch please.
Trey McBride has been limited in practice all week as he is dealing with a groin issue. Should he not play or aggravate the injury this Sunday, remember the names Geoff Swaim and Elijah Higgins.
Minkah Fitzpatrick looks like he's going to play, that's an upgrade for the Steeler defense.
Pittsburgh is pretty good against the run, so I'm not interested in James Conner this week.
Now that Matt Canada's gone, the Steelers can use the middle of the field. As teams adjust their defenses toward that, the opportunity to hit deep shots down the sideline to George Pickens could be back in play.
Broncos @ Texans
CB Pat Surtain is pretty solid, but Fabian Moreau and Damarri Mathis are not. Moreau has replaced Mathis because Mathis is Pro Football Focus’ 120th ranked CB…..out of 120.
One of Dell, Brown, or Collins is likely in for yet another good day, but the Broncos have been better against WRs of late. Brown didn't practice on Friday which is not a good sign.
Denver's particular weakness has been against TEs, but Dalton Schultz missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a hamstring problem. Brevin Jordan will start in his place if Schultz misses.
Denver is giving up the most PPR points per game to RBs this season. Devin Singletary, while losing snaps to Dameon Pierce, is still the lead back for Texans and is not going to be owned on Sunday.
The perception that the Texans are awful against the run is rearing it’s ugly head. Yes, I am a Javonte Williams believer, but I’m not expecting a GPP winning performance here considering both the ownership and the fact that Samaje Perine and Jaleel McLaughlin just won’t go away.
Courtland Sutton catches a TD week, and the Texans are giving up 30 fantasy points per game to the WR position over the last 4 games.
Colts @ Titans
Zach Moss is the DFS item that will make or break everything this week. He ran all over the Titans for 165 yards and 2 TDs in week 5. Will he do it again?
The Titans have one of the better run defenses in the league. Also, there are a variety of factors that were present in week 5 that are no longer there, including both Jonathan Taylor and Anthony Richardson. If you're playing cash games, you should probably just play Moss as he has an easy path to 2.5x his salary. However, I’m currently leaning toward lightning not striking twice and fully fading Moss.
Josh Downs went for 6 grabs and 97 yards against this secondary in week 5. He makes for a solid play as a pivot to both Moss and Pittman, though this is a good matchup for Pittman as well.
Deandre Hopkins had 8 grabs for 140 yards in the previous matchup. The Colts secondary has gotten better as the season has progressed but could still be susceptible to outside WRs.
Falcons @ Jets
The Falcons are finally integrating Bijan into the offense in the manner that the should be, at least for now that is. The Jets are allowing the 4th most fantasy points to the RB position over the last month, and they are 2nd to only Denver in rushing yards allowed on the season.
Breece Hall fully participated in practice on Friday. He's looking at some ownership on Sunday, but the Falcons have been top 10 against RBs over the last 4 weeks.
What else is there to say here? Jonnu Smith will probably have a better day than Kyle Pitts and Drake London will have to catch all 4 of his targets to hit fantasy value.
Panthers @ Buccaneers
Frank Reich has been relieved of his duties. Prior to this season, Reich did not have much experience working with rookie QBs, so I am not personally ready to write Bryce Young off as a bust. I wouldn’t be surprised he if he improves in a matchup against a subpar pass defense.
On top of that, the Bucs are likely to be without 3 of their starting linebackers.
With Reich gone, will Miles Sanders' role change?
Not sure if you all remember the name Ian Thomas, but he's the starting TE with Hayden Hurst and Tommy Tremble out. The Bucs are the 3rd worst team against TEs over the last month.
Rachaad White will be a popular play yet again as on the season the Panthers are one of the worst teams against the RB position. Over the last month, however, they've been getting a little better.
They've also gotten much better against opposing WRs, the 4th best team over the last 4 weeks.
49ers @ Eagles
The 49ers get a Philadelphia secondary that is allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to WRs and the most points to QBs over the last 4 weeks.
Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel are going up againts CBs James Bradberry and Darius Slay who are bleeding fantasy points. Deebo is coming in with slightly higher ownership, but I’m not sure how true that will lend itself to be as pretty much everywhere I look Aiyuk is being recommended.
CMC will likely score at least one TD. At his salary, he'll need 2 to be in the winning lineup.
Over the last month, the 49ers have allowed the fewest fantasy points in the NFL to the QB position, the 2nd fewest to RBs, the 8th fewest to WRs, and the 8th fewest to TEs.
AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are going to be quite low owned in DFS. The Eagles seem to overcome all of the challenges they face. I expect them to get the ball into the hands of their pass catchers. DeVonta Smith's target share has increased significantly since Dallas Goedert has been out.
Browns @ Rams
Flacco is back-O!!!! I don't really care other than it's a really good sign for the Browns passing attack.
Many are hyping the Elijah Moore and Flacco connection because they played together in New York. Amari Cooper is a better receiver and will be lower owned than Moore.
Over the last month, the Browns are allowing 18.5 fantasy points per game to the RB position. Kyren Williams stepped right back into a lead RB role last week.
Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00. And join the Discord for updates on Sunday morning.
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