Hey all and welcome to week 14 of the NFL season, which appears to be Zach Moss SZN yet again. Last week was decent but the big score still eludes me. There are some interesting moves to make here in week 14, so let's get into it.
Should you desire to read my ownership breakdown on Gridiron, click here. Onto the games!
Lions @ Bears
In his last 3 matchups against Chicago, Justin Fields has had at least 100 yards rushing each time. He might be the highest owned QB on Sunday.
The Lions are the 2nd worst team against QBs over the last month.
In his last 6 games with Fields, Moore is averaging 119 yards.
The Lions are also 4th worst against WRs.
Roschon Johnson is a sneaky sub $5000 play if he has indeed taken over RB1 duties like he appeared to last week.
3 weeks ago Jared Goff had 236 yards and 2 TDs against these Bears, but he did get picked off 3 times.
The Lions spread their offense out in that matchup as well. Monty, Gibbs and Amon-Ra each had a TD.
The Bears have been better on defense lately and Goff is typically worse on the road.
Rams @ Ravens
It's tough to ignore an RB like Kyren Williams who is getting about 90% of the workload, his price is tough to get to on this slate against what is arguably the best defense in the NFL.
No Mark Andrews. The Rams are the 3rd worst team against TEs on the season and are 8th worst over the last 4 weeks. I wouldn’t be surprised if Isaiah Likely’s projected 12% ownership increases as we head into the weekend.
With some steady rain and potential wind, give me some of the Ravens DST who will likely force Matt Stafford into some mistakes.
Revenge narratives are in play for both OBJ and Demarcus Robinson.
Texans @ Jets
It's going to be a sloppy one at MetLife on Sunday as there is "definite rain" in the forecast and sustained winds of 15 mph.
The Jets defense is going to provide a good test for CJ Stroud. The good news for the Texans is that he probably won't have to do much since the Jet offense is basically inept.
Because of the weather and the matchup, Texan pass catchers are going to have low ownership.
Dalton Schultz is going to miss again so it's Brevin Jordan SZN. The Jets are tied with the Saints for allowing the most TDs (seven) to tight ends this season.
Garret Wilson is the only one I'd be interested with Zach Milfson throwing the ball. Double digit targets are in play for Garret Wilson who will be carrying some ownership on Sunday.
The Texans have been one of the best teams in football over the last month against the run. Breece Hall is still looking at double digit ownership though.
Colts @ Bengals
Zach Moss, despite his low fantasy performance last week and increased price this week, is projected to be the highest owned player again. It's a little more warranted as the Bengals are the 4th worst team against RBs on the season and 9th worst over the last 4 weeks.
Michael Pittman is also in line for a nice day considering his rapport with Gardner Minshew, and the Bengals don’t have CB Cam Taylor-Britt. They're also 7th worst against WRs over the last month.
At a projection of 11.3%, Jake Browning is looking at some ownership on Sunday. The price is right and the matchup is decent on paper, but the Colts have been statistically better on defense lately.
Joe Mixon had 25 touches in the OT victory over the Jaguars last Monday night. The Colts are allowing the 6th most fantasy points to RBs over the last 4 weeks.
Panthers @ Saints
Captain Checkdown, aka Alvin Kamara, is in play against a Panthers team that is allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to the RB position on the year. They’ve been better of late, but from a volume perspective, there could be a lot plays run in this matchup as both teams are top 10 on the year and in the last 3 weeks in plays per game. This bodes well for Kamara on a site like DraftKings, especially if any or all of Taysom Hill, Chris Olave, and Juwan Johnson miss.
The Saints have been the 4th worst team vs the run in the last 4 weeks. Chuba Hubbard had 25 carries for 104 yards and 2 TDs last weekend.
With no Frank Reich, Jonathan Mingo led Carolina in target share (38%), receptions (6), and receiving yards (69).
Buccaneers @ Falcons
Drake London and Kyle Pitts are garnering ownership here. I guess I get Drake London...it's not often you can get a WR1 at $4600. The Bucs are allowing fantasy points to WRs at a top 10 rate over the last month, and they're going to be without CB Jamel Dean. Kyle Pitts I don't get. When will people learn?
Vita Vea has not practiced all week. This is huge. Wheels up for Bijan Robinson (or Tyler Allgeier or Cordarelle Patterson or your mom in case Art Smith wants to play one of them).
CB AJ Terrell is likely to play, but he's been in concussion protocol and Mike Evans and Baker have an obvious connection. Terrell's shadow coverage could force targets to Trey Palmer, Chris Godwin, or Cade Otton.
Jaguars @ Browns
Cleveland is averaging the most plays per game on the year, and they’re 2nd over their last 3.
Jacksonville is 6th on the season and 5th over their last 3.
The weather and the over/under of 32.5 will keep people away from this matchup. It will be further hindered if Trevor Lawrence misses.
Without Christian Kirk, Parker Washington saw an uptick in targets and scored. I'm not sure I'd expect a repeat of that, however.
Elijah Moore may end up being WR1 as Amari Cooper has not been practicing. Moore was the leading receiver in terms of yardage last week with Joe Flacco behind center.
The Browns DST will be the highest owned on Sunday.
Seahawks @ 49ers
It's wheels up for CMC as the Seahawks are the 3rd worst team against RBs over the last 4 weeks.
George Kittle is a sneaky play considering he did next to nothing in this matchup 2 weeks ago. Seattle’s linebacker core is banged up and aging.
Figuring out which Niners WR is going to have a good day can be a pain, but Deebo Samuel’s usage has been steadily increasing in recent weeks, culminating in his ceiling outing last week.
Geno Smith had a dud of a performance against these 49ers 2 weeks ago, but somehow threw all over the Cowboys defense last week. If he can find a way to do that here, then we could have a shootout on our hands.
Mind the Seattle RB situation. Charbonnet and Walker may or may not play, which would leave Deejay Dallas as the lead back for Seattle. Walker and Charbonnet were full participants on Friday's practice, however.
Vikings @ Raiders
The Raiders have been good against WRs over the last month in terms of fantasy points allowed, but they just cut CB Marcus Peters. This will leave them with Amik Robertson and Jack Jones to man the outside. Robertson is Pro Football Focus’ 87th CB and Jones doesn’t qualify to be ranked but does qualify to be let go by the Patriots after lingering disinterest on the sidelines and lack of commitment like missing curfew. Justin Jefferson is one of the best WRs in football and is looking at low ownership at a depressed salary.
The shine might have worn off Joshua Dobbs. He has 6 turnovers in his last 2 starts. A bad showing could lead to him seeing the bench. This also makes the Raiders DST a sneaky play in DFS.
The Vikings have been quite good against the run of late. This has me scratching my head at Josh Jacobs' projected ownership of 15.1%.
Aidan O'Connell should be looking Davante Adams' way frequently in this matchup. The Vikings are especially thin at linebacker and don't have the perimeter corners to cover Adams.
Bills @ Chiefs
Patrick Mahomes has failed to reach 20 fantasy points in 4 of his last 5 games.
However, dialing it back to 2020, this matchup has produced totals of 44, 78 (an OT game), 58, 62, and 43. While I don't think we're looking at 58 or more game, I do think it's possible to go over 48.5, though this could disappoint.
Isaiah Pacheco is going to miss. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is now going to be a popular play at $4200. I'd rather pivot to Jerick McKinnon.
Over his last 2 games, Rashee Rice has 19 targets. He had 8 grabs and 64 yards last week and 8 catches for 107 yards plus a score 2 weeks ago.
In 2 games with Joe Brady calling plays, Josh Allen has 614 pass yards, 96 rush yards and 7 TDs. Buffalo has scored at least 32 points in both games.
The Chiefs heavy use of 2 high safeties provides a nice statistical spot for Gabe Davis. He’ll be seeing a lot of CB Jaylen Watson, Pro Football Focus’ 90th ranked CB.
Stefon Diggs will see a good amount of CB L’Jarius Sneed, who is much better than Watson. Diggs is capable of overcoming this matchup though.
If Dawson Knox plays, that may take targets away from Kincaid and Shakir.
Broncos @ Chargers
The Chargers are allowing the most passing yards per game, and that’s even after shutting out the Patriots last week. Over the last month, the Chargers are allowing the 6th most fantasy points to WRs. Courtland Sutton’s red zone target share is enough to put him consideration to score at least one TD on Sunday.
Over the last month, the Broncos defense has been the best team in the NFL against WRs.
However, they continue to be one of the worst in football against the TE position. Welcome to my player pool Gerald Everett and maybe even Donald Parham.
Josh Palmer may or may not play in this one.
In another attempt to lose his job, HC Brandon Staley has publicly stated that there will be more competition for touches in the Chargers backfield. Sorry Austin Ekeler owners.
Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00. And join the Discord for updates on Sunday morning.
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