Hey all and welcome to the week 17 writeup! Week 16 was quite brutal. Not only was it mostly a fail in DFS, but my seasonal hopes were dashed by Amari Cooper as well. I didn't have Cooper setting a Browns single game record by catching passes from Flacco on my 2023 bingo card. However, week 17 offers some opportunity and new challenges in DFS. Players and organizations can more easily put into play certain agendas they may have. For players, it's contract incentives. For organizations, it could be playoff positioning, treating players they want to keep well, or trying to put themselves in good shape for a high draft pick. Also, this is a 13 game slate so there will be plenty of opportunity to diversify. Let's get into week 17.
Cardinals @ Eagles
AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith draw exploitable matchups against CBs Kei’Trel Clark and Starling Thomas. Clark is Pro Football Focus' 105th ranked CB, and Thomas is worse, ranking 115th.
The Cardinals have allowed the 4th most passing TDs and the 5th most rushing TDs to QBs this season.
On top of that, the Cardinals are one of the worst teams in football against RBs over the last month. D'Andre Swift is in a good spot, but Philly tends to share the backfield with other RBs and Hurts likes to vulture rushing TDs. The 20 carries Swift got last week is a good sign though.
The Eagles defense continues to be bad against the pass, so I do think it's possible for a Cardinal WR or Trey McBride to have a good day. McBride is the 2nd highest priced TE on the slate, but at $5900, it still might not be high enough.
Kyler Murray is battling an illness, but he got in a limited practice on Friday. If he were unable to go, Clayton Tune would be interesting in this matchup from a DFS perspective.
Dolphins @ Ravens
OBJ has a lot of incentives he can hit with receptions, yards, and TDs. It wouldn't surprise me to see him find the end zone here and have a few grabs along the way.
Lamar and Tua are both going to have to use their legs to evade pressure on Sunday. The Ravens lead the league with 54 sacks, and the Dolphins are right behind them with 52.
The fantasy industry is talking up Tyreek Hill in this game. The funny thing is that they are doing it based on Tyreek being Tyreek as opposed to this being a good matchup or there being some underlining numbers to work with. Sure, Hill could go bananas, but this is sounding like a slug fest between the 2 top teams in the AFC who are viewing for that coveted 1st round bye and home advantage throughout the playoff. Then again, I said the same thing last week.
Jaylen Waddle is going to miss this game though, so the volume should be there for Hill. If he's fully healthy, he's uncoverable.
Mostert and Achane are going to be virtually unowned in DFS.
Titans @ Texans
CJ Stroud is back just in time to help the Texans fight for the playoffs and perhaps have a few players achieve some contract incentives.
Devin Singletary gets $125,000 for over 1,000 yards rushing, another $125,000 for 1100 yards. and $250,000 if he gets to 1200 yards. He currently has 755 yards, so he could be featured quite heavily in the final 2 weeks. Just be careful as the way to attack the Titans is through the air.
Dalton Schultz will get an extra $250,000 each for 60, 70, and 80 receptions. He currently has 52. He gets the same number for 700, 800, and 900 yards. He currently has 574.
Nico Collins should be back in this one. There is only one football so picking 2 maybe 3 Texans is ideal as some of the other offensive players will disappoint.
Deandre Hopkins' ownership is looking high. DHop has incentives for 65, 75, 85 and 95 catches. For receiving yards he has levels of 750, 850, 950 and 1,000. There are also incentives for 4, 6, 8 and 10 TDs. On top of all that, DHop also gets $350,000, $500,000 or $750,000, respectively, for statistics of 65%, 75% or 85% of the offensive snaps. Currently, DHop has 61 receptions, 939 yards, 6 TDs, and has played 71% of the snaps this season. Add in that the Texans are the 9th worst team against WRs over the last month, and then throw in both revenge game and spoiler narratives here.
Tennessee leaned on Derrick Henry as he is likely his way out the door. DFS players are more willing to try Spears again this week as he is garnering more ownership than Henry.
Texans are top 10 in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs over the last month. I have no problem with folks trying for a Will Levis miracle again.
Saints @ Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield has incentives tied to his personal rankings against other NFL QBs. He gets $300,000 for ranking top 10 in the NFL in QB rating, passing yards, passing TDs, completion percentage, and yards per attempt. He could also claim the 300K by ranking top 5 in the NFC, where he currently ranks high in passer rating and TDs. It's possible that he can clear $1.5 million in these bonuses. Baker is also attached to the success of the Bucs in general. He'll earn an extra $250,000 for each Tampa playoff win.
At $7800 Mike Evans will be less owned than many of his WR counterparts, including teammate Chris Godwin. Historically Evans has not done well against New Orleans, but he was typically battling CB Marshon Lattimore who won't be on the field this time
Rachaad White's ownership is down due to the tough matchup against the Saints run D. I have him at 5.6%. If he gets into the optimal lineup, it's likely due to volume or receptions.
The Bucs secondary remains depleted due to injury. They are allowing production to WRs at a top 10 rate over the last 4 weeks. They also are 4th in highest rate of explosive pass plays allowed.
Derek Carr had 300 yards against the Rams last week, and he has 3 TD passes in each of the last 2 games. The Buccaneers have given up the 8th most fantasy points to QBs this season, but they have been better over the last month. Those games, however, were against a banged up Trevor Lawrence, Jordan Love, Desmond Ridder, and Bryce Young.
No one will own Taysom Hill on Sunday. That scares me.
Vita Vea should be on the field on Sunday. That's a downgrade for Alvin Kamara.
Rams @ Giants
Tyrod Time!!!!!
That's probably good news for Gmen pass catchers. Wan'Dale Robinson is getting some ownership, but Darius Slayton and Darren Waller are not. Waller's target share has increased significantly when Taylor has been taking snaps.
The Saints, the Rams opponent last week, play man coverage at one of the highest rates in football. The Gmen's secondary is also heavily man-based. Nacua went HAM on the Saints man-based secondary in week 16. Nacua and Kupp will be squaring off against Deonte Banks and Adoree’ Jackson. Jackson is PFF’s 113th ranked CB and Banks is right there with him at 109. Both are looking at low ownership in DFS.
Demarcus Robinson has found the end zone in each of the last 4 games.
Kyren Williams = New Todd Gurley.
Raiders @ Colts
I expect Zamir White to come in higher than the 11% ownership I have him at. Josh Jacobs hasn't been practicing, while White had 145 yards rushing, and the Colts are the second worst team against the RB position over the last 4 weeks.
If Michael Pittman doesn't play, downgrade the Colts offense.
The Raiders had 62 passing yards last week. Yep. 62.
If the Colts win and the Jags lose, Indy will be sitting in first place in the AFC South.
Patriots @ Bills
Demario Douglas is garnering ownership at his low salary and what appears to be WR1 status. Buffalo is not a favorable matchup for WRs however.
With no Rhamondre, Zeke eats. He had 21 total touches against Denver in week 16. The Bills have been formidable against the run recently.
Gabe Davis will either win you a matchup or a DFS tournament, or he will be the reason you lose.
The Patriots defense has performed admirably despite injuries and almost zero offensive help, but they have become a more middle of the road defense in terms of fantasy points allowed. I expect the Bills and James Cook to continue to have the success they've seen recently.
Stefon Diggs has done quite well against the Pats since he's been a Bill. He's pretty much disappeared from this offense though, and no one is going to own him in DFS.
A win here for the Bills will keep them on the playoff track, and if the Dolphins lose to Baltimore, the Bills will be within 1 game of the division with a matchup against Miami next week.
Panthers @ Jaguars
CJ Beathard is going to start at QB in this game.
Expect a huge dose of Travis Etienne. The Panthers have been better of late against the run though.
I actually think the Panthers could win this one. The Jags have lost 4 in a row, and the last one wasn't even competitive. Now they're going to bench Lawrence? I know he has like 16 injuries, but this feels like a white flag.
49ers @ Commanders
Jacoby Brissett is slated to start but he showed up on the injury report in Friday with a hamstring issue. That'd be hilarious if Washington had to turn back to Sam Howell.
Over their last 4 games, no team in the NFL is worse than the Commanders at stopping the run. CMC’s ownership makes sense for the matchup and situation, but he needs multiple scores and/or over 100 yards to pay off the salary and make the optimal lineup.
The Commanders secondary continues to be one to attack. CB Benjamin St-Juste has allowed the most receiving yards out of any CB in football, but it doesn't really matter as he is going to miss this game. The other starting CB Kendall Fuller is going to miss too. Safety Percy Butler is also out. With those guys this unit is the 6th worst against the WR position over the last month, and now their backups are going to play. It make sense that the 49er pass catchers and Brock Purdy are attracting ownership.
The further caveat here is the state of the Commanders' offensive line; 3 of their starting linemen are going to miss this game as well. Playing San Francisco’s DST is looking like a possible contrarian way to invest in this game, though one of the 49er pass catchers will probably still have a good day.
Falcons @ Bears
Taylor Heinicke is going to start because why the hell not, huh Art Smith?
The Falcons have multiple injuries to their offensive line which could make things difficult against Montez Sweat and company.
I want to find a bet somewhere. Let's fire Art Smith after this game is over.
Steelers @ Seahawks
Geno Smith gets a $2 million bonus if the Seahawks win 10 games or make the playoffs. They have 8 right now and play the Steelers on Sunday. He also has a bunch of provisional statistical markers that can turn his bonuses into an extra $15 million if he accomplishes them. They are intricate and dependent on a variety of statistics, but essentially it behooves him to keep (start) playing well.
Seattle is the 6th worst team against RBs on the season and 12th worst over the last month. Pittsburgh employs 2 RBs these days, and Jaylen Warren is the popular of the 2 in DFS circles.
Mason Rudolph is still slated to start despite Kenny Pickett getting in 2 limited practices this week. Rudolph was able to get the ball downfield to George Pickens against the Bengals last week. Kenny Pickett has struggled in that regard. The Seahawks are not world beaters against WRs, but they are not the hapless Bengals either. Both teams are fighting for a playoff spot.
Bengals @ Chiefs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire looks to be one of the highest owned players on Sunday. That makes me nauseous. He missed practice on Thursday with an illness. McKinnon is already out and Pacheco is in concussion protocol. La'Michal Perine, Deneric Prince, or Keontay Ingram could end up leading this backfield on Sunday.
Over the last 4 weeks, Cincinnati comes in 4th in terms of allowing the most points to WRs. In the last month of games, Rashee Rice has had 9, 10, 9, and 12 targets.
The Chiefs defense has had a few successful weeks shutting down opposing WR1s. Ja'Marr Chase got in a couple limited practices. If he plays, I'll have interest in Tee Higgins. If Chase doesn't, I'll have no interest in this offense.
If there was ever a get right spot for Kansas City's offense, this is it.
Chargers @ Broncos
Austin Ekeler has a variety of incentives:
$100,000 for 1,125 yards
$200,000 for 1,250 yards, $200K for 1,375, and another $200K for 1,500 yards
$300,000 for 1,639 yards (odd number huh)
$150,000 for 10 TDs
$200,000 for 13 TDs
$250,000 for 16 TDs
$150,000 for a Pro Bowl selection
He currently has 965 yards and 6 TDs, and his snaps and touches increased without Staley around last week.
Keenan Allen and Josh Palmer are both out for this game. This makes me like Ekeler even more.
Gerald Everett is going to attract some ownership in DFS because the Broncos "are terrible against the TE." Watch Donald Parham get the TDs though.
The Chargers are not great against the pass, but Courtland Sutton is going to miss this game and Jerry Jeudy and Marvin Mims both missed Friday's practice. Who has the stones to play Brandon Johnson or Lil’Jordan Humphrey?
Stidham has a history of checking down to his RBs as well. There's 3 who see the field for the Broncos though.
Thanks for reading! Follow me on the website formerly known as Twitter @Borisnow00. And join the Discord for updates on Sunday morning.
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