The countdown begins for the NFL fantasy seasons
With the preseason wrapping this weekend, we are officially less than two weeks away from the start of the NFL regular season.
With the majority of fantasy leagues holding their drafts during the next two weeks as well, the big season for some doesn’t start until the 1 p.m. games on opening weekend – the DFS main slate.
I primarily play most of my DFS contests on DraftKings since I’m more comfortable in a full PPR format, but I will dabble a little on FanDuel during the season.
And when you play DFS contests, a lot of the top players and content creators tell you have to play the right contests. It’s is true, but what are the right contests?
Here is my breakdowns of what I look for when playing DFS tournaments.
1. SINGLE- AND THREE-ENTRY CONTESTS: I know you want to take you shot in the weekly Milly Maker DraftKings has, but it is a waste of your money in the long run. (I will say the Week 1 Milly Maker does fall into one of my other key categories). Your goal is to concentrate on the single-entry and three-entry cash, double-ups or GPP contests to avoid the sharks who have the bankroll for the 150-entry contests.
2. THE 22 PERCENT RULE: The 22 percent rule is a pretty easy one to follow – if the tournament pays less than 22 percent of the field then avoid that contest. DFS will have more downs than ups so you have to take advantage of the payout scale when you can. A sub-par week could leave you on the bubble looking in at the green in GPP tournaments that pay less than 22 percent. I will say DK’s $5 million Fantasy Football Millionaire falls into the 22 percent as 25 percent of the field will be paid. Plus, the Week 1 Milly Maker is only a $5 tournament and I will have multiple entries in it.
3. DOUBLE THE CASH: Every tournament I play I want the minimum cash to be at least double my buy in. It gives you a nice floor even during a low-scoring-in-the-green weeks.
4. BANKROLL MANAGEMENT: You should always play within your means when entering contests. Some of the podcasts I listen to had another good idea as to diversify your contest entries to be about 50 percent in cash/double-ups and 50 percent in GPPs. If you have a bad GPP week, your cash tournaments should cover your losses even if you squeeze into the money. This keeps you afloat for the next week without dipping back into the deposit game.
WEEK 1 EARLY LOOK
QB: The obvious plays at QB will Tua Tagovailoa ($6,700) Justin Herbert ($6,900) as the Miami-LA Chargers game has the highest total for Week 1 at 51. But the best value may be Sam Howell ($4,900), who was named Washington’s starting QB. Howell gives you the running aspect to smash a slate, but the Arizona-Washington game currently has a game total of 38.5, which could limit Howell’s upside if the Commanders cover as a 7-point favorite.
RB: I have a sneaky RB for the Week 1 slate but I will save him until my DFS Week 1 story, but San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey could bring a fire emoji by his name despite the $8,700 price tag. The reason why is because I think the 49ers will be trailing in the second half vs. Pittsburgh. McCaffrey is the best receiving option in the San Fran backfield and he could pile a bunch of catches and yards vs. the Steelers late-game prevent defense.
WR: Keenan Allen ($7,300) is going to be chalky, and I’m still going to play him in a lineup or two. It appears the Chargers are going to be move him around the formation this year. Add that to the team wanting to play at a quicker pace with its talented offense, Allen could be the beneficiary in an expected shootout.
TE: There is about four TEs I'm looking at to play during Week 1, but I haven’t narrowed it down to a fav yet. But punting at TE is never a bad play in DFS. Carolina’s Hayden Hurst ($3,000) could be a safety outlet for rookie QB Bryce Young against an Atlanta defense that was 25th in fantasy points allowed to TEs last year.
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- I will be providing my weekly spreadsheet on my Patreon page again this season. Plus, I’m offering a monthly deal for helping you with the ins and outs of your in-season league: https://www.patreon.com/fantasyfbguru
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