Fields: In DFS if it's not broke, don't fix it
I’ve really let myself and others down the last two weeks. Especially going into my favorite time of the year for NFL DFS – Thanksgiving week.
A nice fat bankroll is lacking as we prepare for the Week 11 before getting two big DFS days during Turkey week.
But this week has me excited as there is not an apparent path to hitting the green in cash tournaments. DraftKings has finally honed in its pricing, forcing us to pay up at one position and punting on another.
Now for my review of last week’s lineup, it’s was a big old punt.
I only had two fire emoji as Justin Fields continued his fantastic run with another 40-plus point game and Minnesota DST with its crazy ending in the Vikings’ OT vs. Buffalo. But for the bad, I had five snowflakes to finish with 118.98 points.
I will be providing my spreadsheet and main cash and GPP lineups on my Patreon page: https://www.patreon.com/fantasyfbguru
Quarterback
Top play
Justin Fields, Chicago ($7,600): This play is starting to sound like a broken record. Fields has been fabulous, rushing for 5 TDs and throwing for 8 TDs over the last month. My spreadsheet says it not going to stop this week vs. Atlanta.
Other QBs
Josh Allen, Buffalo ($8,500)
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota ($6,100)
Taylor Heinicke, Washington ($5,300)
The change of venue saved Allen (fantasy-wise and from not playing in the cold with his ailing elbow) this week as the dome in Detroit allows the Bills to use their whole offense. Cousins has returned 2.5-plus value for four straight weeks. Heinicke is this week’s sleeper and is a nice price saver for your lineup.
Running back
Top play
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans ($7,600): Kamara has only seen 12 and 11 touches the last two weeks (both losses) after averaging 24.8 touches the previous four weeks. I think the Saints get back in the win column by giving Kamara closer to 20 touches.
Value plays
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England ($6,700)
Tony Pollard, Dallas ($6,500)
D’Onta Foreman, Carolina ($5,900)
Stevenson should remain the focal point of the Patriots offense even with Damien Harris sharing touches. Pollard should also be on the better side of touches with Ezekiel Elliott expected to return this week, but if Elliott can’t go, Pollard has averaged 30.8 DK points subbing for the injured Zeke. Foreman has rushed for 100 or more yards in three of four games.
Wide receiver
Top play
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota ($9,100): Jefferson has seen 29 targets in his last two games, and should be highly targeted again in a game that is expected to be competitive.
Value plays
Terry McLaurin, Washington ($5,900)
Darnell Mooney, Chicago ($5,400)
Donovan Peoples-Jones, Cleveland ($4,600)
Parris Campbell, Indianapolis ($4,300)
Nico Collins, Houston ($4,100)
In Heinicke’s four starts at QB, McLaurin has seen at least 8 targets a game and has averaged 18.1 DK points. Mooney’s target rate is 12th in the league however he hasn’t has a big game like a WR1 this season – he’s due. Peoples-Jones only caught 5 of 9 targets for 99 yards last week after catching 14 of 15 passes the previous three weeks. Campbell was the biggest beneficiary with Matt Ryan back at QB for the Colts. Collins is coming off his most productive game of the season (5 catches for 49 yards and TD on 10 targets.)
Tight end
Top play
Cole Kmet, Chicago ($4,100): Kmet has finally realized his potential along with the emergence of Fields. He has 13 targets and 4 TDs the last two weeks.
Value play
Dalton Schultz, Dallas ($4,300): Schultz is finally healthy and one of Dak Prescott’s favor targets. Schultz has 17 catches on 20 targets and 177 yards and a touchdown since Dak returned from his thumb injury.
Cheap plays
Tyler Conklin, NY Jets ($3,400)
Juwan Johnson, New Orleans ($3,100)
Jack Stoll, Philadelphia ($2,500)
Conklin had a big game in the Jets last matchup vs. New England (6-79-2). Johnson has been one of the hottest TEs in the league – scoring 4 TDs in the last four weeks. Stoll is the next man up in Philly after Dallas Goedert went on IR.
DraftKings Cash Core
QB: Justin Fields, Chicago
RB: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans
WR: Terry McLaurin, Washington
TE: Cole Kmet, Chicago
GPP Stacks
Taylor Heinicke, Antonio Gibson, Terry McLaurin, Nick Collins
Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet
Matt Ryan, Jonathan Taylor, Parris Campbell, A.J. Brown, Jack Stoll
Last Week’s DK by the Numbers
Cash Core
QB: Justin Fields 43.38
RB: Alvin Kamara 7.5
WR: Tyreek Hill 15.4
TE: Foster Moreau 13.30
QB: Patrick Mahomes II 35.14, Tua Tagovailoa 23.4.
RB: Tony Pollard 24.8, Dameon Pierce 13.2, Jamaal Williams 11.9, Najee Harris 9.9.
WR: Christian Kirk 34.5, Jerry Jeudy 0, Donovan Peoples-Jones 14.9.
TE: Travis Kelce 20.1, Greg Dulcich 2.1, Evan Engram 4.4, Foster Moreau 13.3, Tanner Hudson 5.4.
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