What my spreadsheet says I will follow
I have to admit I’ve been struggling this year with my NFL DFS cash lineups.
I’ve had a one great week this year with several not so good. Last week was a new one for me – a very average week which was not good enough to hit the green.
I finished with only two fire emojis and no snowflakes but the points earned were just not good enough. I finished the week with 129.6 points after switching my tight end from Austin Hooper to Teagan Quitoriano allowing me to play Tee Higgins and his 27.4 points.
But I still fell short.
I will be providing my spreadsheet and main cash and GPP lineups on my Patreon page: https://www.patreon.com/fantasyfbguru
This week I’m strictly following my top plays from my spreadsheet. Last week could have been a big week but second-guessing myself proved wrong. No more second guessing!
**EDITOR'S NOTE:** The amount of time it takes to compile my DFS spreadsheet has cut into my time to write my weekly Waiver Wire Frenzy story. To save me some stress of home life, my regular job, compiling spreadsheets and writing other stories, I will not be writing the wavier wire story for the rest of the season.
Onto this week’s top players!
Quarterback
My Top Play
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati ($6,900): Burrow let me down last week with a mediocre 18.0-point week but I’m going right back to him this week. The return of Ja’Marr Chase and a competitive game vs. the Kansas City offense should have Burrow exceeding 25-plus DraftKing points this week.
Other QBs
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia ($8,000)
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville ($5,900)
Hurts may have finished with a season-high 157 yards rushing last week in the win vs. Green Bay, but it’s his arm that should do most of the damage vs. Tennessee’s 27th ranked defense vs. QBs. Lawrence faces the Lions 32nd ranked defense vs. QBs and his offensive pieces make this game matchup very stackable.
Running back
My Top Play
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas ($7,900): I know you think I’m chasing points but I’m really not. Jacobs has averaged 21.6 points vs. the Chargers in 3 career home games and has averaged 27.2 points in four home games this season. Oh did I forget to mention the Chargers are 29th vs. RBs in fantasy scoring this season.
Other RBs
Derrick Henry, Tennessee ($8,100)
Aaron Jones, Green Bay ($6,900)
David Montgomery ($6,200)
The Eagles have been vulnerable vs. the run this season thanks to the injury of rookie defensive lineman Jordan Davis, who was activated off the IR as the 21-day window for his return starts this week. It may not matter if Davis plays or not as the Titans will put the ball in Henry’s hands often as he has averaged 23.3 carries on the road this season. In five of those six road games, Henry has scored more than 25 DK points. Jones has scored 6 TDs in the last five matchups vs. the Bears. Montgomery had his best game of the season in the Bears-Packers first matchup this season, finishing with 122 yards rushing, and has the backfield to himself for another week.
Wide receiver
My Top Play
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati ($7,200): I think Ja’Marr Chase will be involved in his first game back from a hip injury, but Higgins is the better play based on his price. Higgins has been very streaky for big games in his three-year career, and he’s currently on one of those heaters right now.
Other WRs
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati ($7,900)
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville ($6,300)
Garrett Wilson, NY Jets ($5,300)
Zay Jones, Jacksonville ($4,900)
Chase may play second fiddle behind Higgins in this highly anticipated rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game. Kirk was quiet last week but has seen 7 or more targets for five straight games. If we ignore the New England game (2 targets), Wilson has seen 8, 9 and 7 targets in 3 of his last 4 games. Jones has seen double-digits 4 times this season for the Jaguars, including his last two games.
Tight end
My Top Play
George Kittle, San Francisco ($5,000): Kittle faces a Miami defense which is in the bottom 3 of the NFL vs. TEs. This could be a blow up game with the availability of Deebo Samuel up in the air.
Other TEs
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh ($4,300)
Foster Moreau, Las Vegas ($3,600)
In his last five games played, Freiermuth has averaged 7.8 targets a game and has 27 receptions and 0 TDs during that stretch. Some positive TD regression is coming soon for The Muth. Moreau saved his week vs. the Seahawks with a game-tying TD after receiving 7 targets and the Chargers are one of the bottom 10 teams vs. TEs this season.
DraftKings Cash Core
QB: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati
RB: Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas
WR: Tee Higgins, Cincinnati
TE: George Kittle, San Francisco
GPP Stacks
Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne Jr., Zay Jones, Christian Kirk, Amon-Ra St. Brown
Joe Burrow, Isiah Pacheco, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Travis Kelce
Last Week’s DK by the Numbers
Cash Core
QB: Joe Burrow 18.0
RB: Latavius Murray 10.8
WR: DeAndre Hopkins 18.7
TE: Teagan Quitoriano 4.0
QB: Patrick Mahomes II 22.4, Kyler Murray 26.24, Geno Smith 24.32, Derek Carr 22.8.
RB: Christian McCaffrey 8.9, James Conner 25.0, Jeff Wilson Jr. 12.2, Latavius Murray 10.8.
WR: Juju Smith-Schuster 6.8, Josh Palmer 10.6, Marquise Brown 10.6, Garrett Wilson 26.4.
TE: Travis Kelce 15.7, Juwan Johnson 0, Austin Hooper 6.0.
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