This week's schedule is no Christmas gift
The Week 14 NFL DFS slate could be an interesting, low-scoring weekend.
There is only one game with an over/under for 50 points or more (Minnesota at Detroit, 51.5 points). So a lot of players will be swarming to this game week.
As for last week, it was another bummer for me, finishing with only 114.74 points. There were just too many snowflakes to help Joe Burrow, Josh Jacobs and Garrett Wilson’s combined 82.24 points.
My spreadsheet is still giving me good options to play each week, but I continue to not find the right combination.
Onto this week’s top players!
I will be providing my spreadsheet and main cash and GPP lineups on my Patreon page: https://www.patreon.com/fantasyfbguru
Quarterback
My Top Play
Geno Smith, Seattle ($6,200): With an ailing running game, the Seahawks may concentrate on its efficient aerial attack against Carolina. Smith has been consistent, scoring 19.1 points or more for five straight weeks. I’ll take his consistency for my cash QB.
Other QBs
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville ($5,700)
Jared Goff, Detroit ($5,600)
Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee ($5,200)
I’m going cheap with QBs this week to enable me to spend up on the other positions.
I think the Jacksonville-Tennessee has sneaky over shootout potential as the Titans are a 3.5-point home favorite. Lawrence has a favorable matchup and should be play through his sprained toe. In the Titans last three games, they have given up more than 280 yards passing a game. Tannehill shows up well in my spreadsheet, while Derrick Henry does not. We have to remember Henry is 3 years removed from his 2018 200-plus yard game vs. the Jaguars. Pairing Tannehill with one of his tight ends should pay off nicely with Treylon Burks declared out. Goff gets the juicy matchup vs. the Vikings bend but don’t break pass defense. The Vikings are in the middle of the league of giving up TD passes (1.3 TD a game), while giving up a ton of yardage, more than 345 yards passing a game in the last 3 games.
Running back
My Top Play
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati ($6,900): I’m avoiding the chalky Henry for Mixon, who is coming off of a concussion. Mixon has caught 7, 4 and 5 passes in his last three games vs. Cleveland and should be well rested after missing the last two games.
Other RBs
Tony Pollard, Dallas ($6,700)
Miles Sanders, Philadelphia ($6,200)
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas ($6,100)
Latavius Murray, Denver ($5,200)
Pollard and Elliott face Houston’s 32nd-ranked rush defense – however, picking the right RB who scores the most in what could be only 3 quarters of work is the big problem. After passing all over the Titans last week, the Eagles may return to the ground game vs. the NY Giants’ leaky run defense. The Giants have giving up more than 160 yards rushing in the last three games, and Sanders should be the beneficiary early and often. For the season, Kansas City is a top 10 rush defensive team, but the Chiefs gave up 152 yards rushing to the Bengals on the road last week. Murray should see the bulk of the touches in the backfield, including the receiving work.
Wide receiver
My Top Play
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit ($7,800): St. Brown still may be underprice with a ripe matchup vs. the Vikings’ league-worst pass defense. Minnesota has giving up 345.7 yards passing in its past 3 games. St. Brown has seen 8 or more targets for six straight weeks.
Other WRs
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati ($7,900)
Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay ($6,700)
D.K. Metcalf, Seattle ($7,100)
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville ($6,600)
Tyler Lockett, Seattle ($6,500)
Chris Moore, Houston ($3,400)
Despite missing 4 games, Chase appeared to be in form to delivery big numbers in fantasy. He caught 7 of 8 targets for 97 yards in the Bengals’ win vs. the Chiefs last week. Godwin was a surprise to see pop up on my spreadsheet, but if Tom Brady is pressured much Godwin should see plenty of targets from his slot position. The 49ers are a middle of the road defense vs. slot WRs. Metcalf and Lockett could see similar numbers to last week’s where they combined to see 20 targets. Metcalf is nursing a hip injury so keep an eye on the late-game inactives. Kirk received positive news with Lawrence expected to play. Kirk has seen 7 or more targets for six straight weeks, but his productions has been up and down. Moore gives you salary relief and he only needs to score 10.2 points to reach 3X value. He has caught 17 of 24 passes in his last 5 games and should be the one of the Texans top targeted WRs this week with Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins both out.
Tight ends
My Top Play
Austin Hooper, Tennessee ($2,900): In the Titans last four games against the Jaguars, they have thrown four TD passes to their TEs. Hooper is still the No. 1 TE on the team and has a one multiple TD game already this season. Burks’ absence only helps the Titans TEs.
Other TEs
George Kittle, San Francisco ($4,300)
David Njoku, Cleveland ($3,900)
Chig Okonkwo, Tennessee ($2,700)
Kittle was a disappointment last week for me but his salary was reduced from last week’s $5K. He has seen 15 targets the last four weeks, and with rookie Brock Prudy under center, maybe Kittle’s targets see an uptick. Njoku is returning after a knee injury that keep him out of last week’s game vs. Houston. He missed the first matchup at home against Cincinnati and has scored a TD vs. Bengals in each of the last two seasons. Okonkwo saw his playing time increase to a season-high 58 percent of the snaps last week and he has at least 31 yards receiving in the last five games.
DraftKings Cash Core
QB: Geno Smith, Seattle
RB: Joe Mixon, Cincinnati
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit
TE: Austin Hooper, Tennessee
GPP Stacks
Ryan Tannehill, Austin Hooper, Christian Kirk
Geno Smith, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, D.J. Moore
Last Week’s DK by the Numbers
Cash Core
QB: Joe Burrow 30.4
RB: Josh Jacobs 25.0
WR: Tee Higgins 12.5
TE: George Kittle 4.2
QB: Jalen Hurts 37.4, Trevor Lawrence 16.36.
RB: Derrick Henry 5.8, Aaron Jones 10.0, David Montgomery 16.7.
WR: Ja’Marr Chase 16.7, Christian Kirk 19.4, Garrett Wilson 27.2, Zay Jones 3.6.
TE: Pat Freiermuth 10.6, Foster Moreau 4.2.
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