Scoreboard watching will be key to Sunday's main slate
This DFS season has been a crazy one for me.
After having plenty of success last season with my cash lineups, this year has been a fizzle. At least I found some success late in the year with my GPP lineups to make up for the bad cash year.
I finished with 101.7 points in my cash lineup as I fell by less than 2 points in all my cash game tournaments.
Thanks to my stack of the Carolina-Tampa Bay game, I had another nice win for $750. I finished in 6th place in the $50K Blind Side single entry with 192.98 points but a late pivot from T.J. Hockenson to Allen Lazard drop me one spot. A good payday despite missing another pay bump.
I will be providing my spreadsheet and main cash and GPP lineups on my Patreon page: https://www.patreon.com/fantasyfbguru
This story will include the Saturday two-game slate and the Sunday main slate. The Sunday main slate top plays will be all over the place with so much uncertainty on playoff implications.
Onto this week’s top plays!
Quarterback
Saturday
My Top Play
Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City ($8,400): Mahomes needs 430 yards passing to break Peyton Manning’s single season record of 5,477 yards passing. Plus, the Chiefs have their eye on the AFC No. 1 seed with a win.
Sunday
My Top Play
Russell Wilson, Denver ($5,400): Wilson has been awful this year for fantasy but that’s the beauty of playing weekly DFS. Russ has scored 25-plus points in two of his last three outings, which are great numbers for the cash QB.
Other QBs
Josh Allen, Buffalo ($8,400)
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati ($7,300)
Brock Prudy, San Francisco ($5,700)
Allen and the Bills will be motivated after Damar Hamlin appears to be on the path to recovery after his scary cardiac event during last Monday’s game. And if the Chiefs lose to the Raiders on Saturday, the Bills will playing for the AFC’s No. 1 seed. Burrow and the Bengals have some revenge and playoff motivation vs. the Ravens. Cincy lost to Baltimore earlier in the season and if the Ravens win, a coin flip will decide the AFC’s No. 3 seed. Prudy grew up in the Phoenix area and has thrown at least 2 TD passes in each of his starts.
Running back
Saturday
My Top Play
Derrick Henry, Tennessee ($8,000): In his last five starts vs. the Jaguars, Henry has rushed for at least 84 yards in each game. This season he has become a bigger part of the passing game and that part of his game may be needed as the Titans enter the game as a 6.5-point underdogs.
Sunday
My Top Play
Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta ($5,600): Tampa Bay run stuffing specialist Vita Vea is not playing vs. the Falcons, opening the door for Allgeier to have a big game. The rookie needs 100 yards to reach 1,000 yards rushing for the season.
Other RBs
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco ($9,300)
Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers ($8,900)
Cam Akers, LA Rams ($6,200)
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh ($6,100)
McCaffrey and Ekeler are on the wait and see watch but both have good matchups if they play the majority of their games. Akers appears to be finally healthy as he has rattled off 5 straight weeks of 10 or more points, including rushing for more than 100 yards in his last two games. Now he faces the Seattle defense that has given up 150 yards rushing a game this season. Harris has also been on a hot streak. Harris has scored 13 or more points for four straight weeks and now faces Cleveland’s 27th-ranked defense vs. RBs.
Wide receiver
Saturday
My Top Play
Zay Jones, Jacksonville ($5,000): If the Jaguars are going to beat the Titans, it will be through the air as the Tennessee’s run defense is second best in the league. Jones had a big game (8-77-1) on 12 targets in the team’s first matchup.
Sunday
My Top Play
CeeDee Lamb, Dallas ($8,200): Lamb may only played in one half, but he has enough upside to be a viable play in just one half of play. Lamb has seen 25 targets in his last two games.
Other WRs
DaVonta Smith, Philadelphia ($7,500)
D.J. Moore, Carolina ($6,100)
Johan Dotson, Washington ($4,500)
Russell Gage, Tampa Bay ($4,400)
Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans ($4,200)
Smith should see enough work to be viable has a cash play. He has seen 8 or more targets in eight straight games. Moore has been hot in his last three games and has had a TD or 100 yards receiving in 3 of last 5 games vs. the Saints. Dotson should see better QB play this week as the Commanders are going with rookie Sam Howell after the Carson Wentz experience cost them a spot in the playoffs. Gage should see play of targets as most of the Bucs’ starter are expected to sit most of the game. Shaheed has been a pleasant late season surprise as he has been productive with his limited targets (13 catches on 15 targets) in his last three games.
Tight end
Saturday
My Top Play
Darren Waller, Las Vegas ($4,400): Waller hasn’t put up big numbers since returning from IR but at his price and Kansas City defense being non-existent in 4 of the past 5 weeks he only needs to score 13.2 points to hit value.
Sunday
My Top Play
Albert Okwuegbunam, Denver ($2,900): With Greg Dulcich on IR, Albert O. has become a thing again at the TE position. He didn’t disappoint last week with 3 catches on 6 targets for 45 yards and a TD.
Other TEs
George Kittle, San Francisco ($6,000)
Tyler Higbee, LA Rams ($4,400)
Tyler Conklin, NY Jets ($3,600)
Kittle has been on a tear with Purdy under center. In his last three games, Kittle has 14 catches for 236 yards and five TDs. Higbee was quiet last week but faces the Seahawks’ league worst defense vs. TEs. Conklin also has a juicy matchup vs. Miami’s 30th worst defense vs. TEs.
Defenses
Saturday
My Top Play
Kansas City ($3,200): I know the Chiefs have been awful on the road defensively, giving up 26.3 points a game in their last three, but I’m going with the team who should get some sacks and a turnover or 2 on a 2-game slate.
Sunday
My Top Play
Miami ($3,000): Despite their five-game losing streak, the Dolphins have been a solid defense at home, scoring 10 DraftKings points in home games.
Other defenses
Dallas ($3,900)
Buffalo ($3,800)
Seattle ($3,300)
Saturday’s DK Cash Core
QB: Patrick Mahomes II, Kansas City
RB: Derrick Henry, Tennessee
WR: Zay Jones, Jacksonville
TE: Darren Waller, Las Vegas
Sunday’s DK Cash Core
QB: Russell Wilson, Denver
RB: Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta
WR: CeeDee Lamb, Dallas
TE: Albert Okwuegbunam, Denver
Sunday’s GPP Stacks
Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Jakobi Meyers, Dawson Knox
Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Greg Dortch, George Kittle
Last week’s DK by the Numbers
Cash Core
QB: Jared Goff 22.40
RB: Leonard Fournette 8.7
WR: Greg Dortch 5.5
TE: Tyler Conklin 14.0
QB: Patrick Mahomes II 29.52, Justin Fields 21.2, Daniel Jones 36.18.
RB: James Conner 14.0, Cam Akers 17.3, A.J. Dillon 10.1, Brian Robinson Jr. 8.7.
WR: Justin Jefferson 2.5, Keenan Allen 11.8, Jerry Jeudy 10.8, Johan Dotson 6.7, Isaiah Hodgins 14.2, D.J. Chark Jr. 7.6.
TE: Travis Kelce 11.3, Evan Engram 3.9, Jelani Woods 4.9.
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