Let's bounce back!
What a rough start it was during NFL Week 1 DFS for me.
My cash lineup was looking good after the early games until anyone with Tyreek Hill and Tua Tagovailoa dashed my hopes of the green.
I finished with 125.78 points and just missed cashing by less than 8 points, and I can thank the LA Rams-Seattle game for falling short.
DK Metcalf had a nice first half with 13.7 points but was shut out in the second half, and Cam Akers was second fiddle to backup Kyren Williams in the Rams backfield. Williams scored twice.
Gut punching disappointment!
I will be providing my spreadsheet and main cash and GPP lineups on my Patreon page: https://www.patreon.com/fantasyfbguru
Don’t forget to check out Boris’ game-by-game DFS breakdown!
Now onto this week's top plays!
My Top Play
Quarterback
Jared Goff, Detroit ($6,200): Goff doesn’t grade high on my spreadsheet this week, but he is hard to pass up playing at home vs. a Seattle defense that was carved up by Matthew Stafford and the Rams.
Goff averaged 21.6 points a game last season in the cozy confines of Ford Field. He only averaged 12 points a game on the road.
I’ll take those home numbers and his lower price tag over the higher priced QBs.
Other QBs
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City ($8,300)
Justin Fields, Chicago ($7,600)
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville ($6,700)
Mahomes and Lawrence match up in the game with the highest total of the week at 51.5 in Jacksonville. Mahomes is expected to have TE Travis Kelce back in the lineup and he has been a more consistent scorer on the road during the last three seasons. Lawrence scored 21 fantasy points last year vs. KC on the road. Fields shows up nicely on my spreadsheet vs. Tampa Bay’s suspect pass defense.
My Top Play
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco ($8,900): CMC and the 49ers offense were running on all cylinders last week vs. Pittsburgh.
McCaffrey finished with 169 total yards, 3 catches and a TD vs. the Steelers, and now he faces one of his favorite teams to play against.
He has averaged 97 yard rushing, 8.3 receptions and 75 yards receiving and added 4 TDs in three games vs. the Rams.
His price tag is way too cheap.
Other RBs
Tony Pollard, Dallas ($7,500)
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas ($7,100)
David Montgomery, Detroit ($5,800)
Zack Moss, Indianapolis ($4,700)
With no competition for touches, Pollard shined. He scored twice and rushed for more than 70 yards in only three quarters of work last week’s blowout vs. the Giants. Jacobs is the still the workhorse in Vegas. Despite minimum preseason work, Jacobs had 21 touches in the Raiders’ road win vs. Denver. Montgomery is currently 1A in the Lions backfield and should continue to have that role as Detroit slowly ramps up Jahmyr Gibbs’ touches. Moss returns to the Colts’ starting lineup after preseason broken arm kept him out of Week 1. He had more than 100 yards rushing and 1 TD last year in the season finale vs. Houston.
My Top Play
Wide Receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit ($7,800): Seattle struggled defending the middle last week as Puka Nacua carved them up for 10 catches and 119 yards.
St. Brown makes his living in the middle of the field and he started off the season on the right foot with 6 catches on 9 targets for 71 yards and a TD in the Lions’ opening win vs. Kansas City.
He missed last year’s Lions’ big win vs. the Seahawks, but he scorched Seattle in 2021 with a 35.4 fantasy points game.
Other WRs
Puka Nacua, LA Rams ($4,900)
Darnell Mooney, Chicago ($4,400)
Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas ($3,800)
All three of these low-priced WRs show up in the Top 10 from my spreadsheet. Nacua, who is nursing an oblique injury, burst onto the scene with his big game vs. the Seahawks. Mooney was Fields’ go-to guy last week and Tampa Bay secondary is vulnerable. Renfrow should pick up where Jakobi Meyers left off last week. Meyers is out dealing with a concussion.
My Top Play
Tight End
Adam Trautman, Denver ($3,000): The higher priced TEs have questionable tags again this week so I’m going with the low-priced TE approach for my cash play (plus the higher WRs are in juicy matchups this week).
Trautman caught all five of his targets last week for 34 yards and now faces a Washington defense that gave up 8 catches to TEs last week.
Plus, Greg Dulcich is out this week after being placed on IR.
Other TEs
Cole Kmet, Chicago ($4,400)
Luke Musgrave, Green Bay ($3,200)
Kmet is more a GPP play as my spreadsheet is apparently liking a Bears stack vs. Tampa Bay. He had 7 targets last week. Musgrave caught 3 of 4 targets for 50 yards last week and now faces an Atlanta defense that gave up 5 receptions, 41 yards and a TD to Hayden Hurst last week.
My Top Play
DST
Jacksonville ($2,500): This play is based on price and the number opportunities (sacks and interceptions) the ball is going to be in the air vs. Kansas City. My spreadsheet believes there are several good options this week
Other DST
Dallas ($4,000) home against NY Jets
Buffalo ($3,700) home against Las Vegas
Washington ($3,100) at Denver
Week 2 DK Cash Core
QB: Jared Goff, Detroit
RB: Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit
TE: Adam Trautman, Denver
Last Week's DK by the Numbers
Cash Core
QB: Sam Howell 17.18
RB: Cam Akers 8.9
WR: Michael Thomas 11.1
TE: Hayden Hurst 15.1
QB: .Justin Herbert 20.92, Geno Smith 9.08, Russell Wilson 15.18.
RB: Christian McCaffrey 28.9, Austin Ekeler 29.4, Derrick Henry 13.9.
WR: Keenan Allen 14.2, Amari Cooper 6.7, Jakobi Meyers 29.1, Marvin Mims Jr. 2.9.
TE: T.J. Hockenson 11.5, Tyler Higbee 7.9, Gerald Everett 4.3.
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