Let's follow the spreadsheet
Another disappointing week!
But going back and studying my spreadsheet, I realized something – I was not following my spreadsheet like I should have been.
I’ve been trying to correlate too much which I need to ignore thanks to the proof of some the lineups that have been taking down the big GPPs.
It’s all about following the spreadsheet this week.
But last week’s cash lineup fell short by 10 points as I finished with 139.92 points. I pivoted from the Saints defense to the Steelers to move Hollywood Brown into the flex.
The Steelers and Hollywood both had good games for a cash lineup, but it was the Anthony Richardson injury which doomed it. Richardson finished with only 4.42 points before injuring his shoulder.
Oh well, we still have 13 more regular season weeks to hit a big one! And my spreadsheet is due!
Also check out Boris’ DFS game-by-game breakdown!
I am providing my spreadsheet and main cash and some GPP lineups on my Patreon page: https://www.patreon.com/fantasyfbguru. Check it out and stop missing out on a cheap monthly deal!
Onto My Top Plays for Week 6!
My Top Play
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford, LA Rams ($6,100): Stafford is coming off his lowest passing yards output of the season and should be in a great bounceback spot against the porous Arizona secondary.
Cooper Kupp is back in the lineup to pair with rookie sensation Puka Nacua to give Stafford a solid 1-2 options. Kupp didn’t miss a beat last week after coming off of IR from a hamstring injury.
Stafford is averaging 290.2 yards passing a game but he should have some TD regression to the norm as he has only thrown 5 this season.
Other Cash QB
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati ($6,300): Burrow looks to have turned the corner on his calf injury as he and Ja’Marr Chase lit up the Cardinals defense last week.
Burrow threw for 300-plus yards and three TDs, all going to Chase. Tee Higgins may return to the lineup to give Burrow another weapon vs. the Seahawks’ 30th-ranked pass defense.
Sneaky GPP QB
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay ($5,400)
My Top Play
Running back
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans ($6,800): Since his return from suspension, Kamara has been the workhorse in the Saints backfield, averaging 24 touches in his two games.
In his only career game vs. the Texans, Kamara shredded them, going for 97 yards rushing and 72 yards receiving.
Other Cash RBs
Kyren Williams, LA Rams ($6,500)
D’Andre Swift, Philadelphia ($6,100)
Williams is the de facto workhorse in the Rams backfield as he is averaging 18 touches a game. He’s had an up-and-down season as far as fantasy points go, but this should be an up week. Swift faces a NY Jets run defense which is in the bottom third of the league, and he’s averaged 20.65 DraftKings points the last four weeks.
Sneaky GPP RB
Kenneth Walker III, Seattle ($6,700)
My Top Play
Wide Receiver
Adam Thielen, Carolina ($5,900): Everything points to Thielen having another big fantasy week. He sees plenty of targets (44 the last 4 weeks), and he’s averaging 25.2 DK points during that stretch. The Panthers will be in a negative game script vs. Miami which should provide Thielen plenty of targets.
Other Cash WRs
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati ($8,300)
Puka Nacua, LA Rams ($8,000)
Chase broke out his TD slump last week with 3, while seeing a massive amount of targets with Tee Higgins out of the lineup and if Higgins misses again – watch out! I like Puka a little better than Cooper Kupp just because of the savings in salary. Puka is 1B in the Rams potent passing attack.
Sneaky GPP WR
Curtis Samuel, Washington ($3,700)
My Top Play
Tight End
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia ($4,800): The NY Jets strength is their secondary, but they struggle vs. TEs (31st vs. TE fantasy scoring). Goedert finally broke out of his early season slump with 8 catches and 117 yards and a TD last week.
Other Cash TEs
Zach Ertz, Arizona ($3,600)
Logan Thomas, Washington ($3,500)
Ertz continues to see plenty of targets as he is averaging 6.8 a game – however his upside is limited. Thomas saw double-digit targets last week but he is also lacking in deeper targets.
Sneaky GPP TE
Dalton Schultz, Houston ($3,600)
My Top Play
DST
Tampa Bay ($2,300): This play is simply on Jared Goff. Goff’s numbers are significantly worse on the road than at home, and I think DK mis-priced the Bucs way too cheap
Sneaky GPP DST
Minnesota ($3,000)
Sunday’s DK Cash Core
QB: Matthew Stafford, LA Rams
RB: Alvin Kamara, New Orleans
WR: Adam Thielen, Carolina
TE: Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia
DK by the Numbers
Cash Core
QB: Anthony Richardson 4.42
RB: Breece Hall 31.4
WR: Wan’Dale Robinson 6.9
TE: Jonnu Smith 11.7
QB: Patrick Mahomes 19.24, Kirk Cousins 19.86, Matthew Stafford 16.88.
RB: Bijan Robinson 12.8, David Montgomery 23.9, De’Von Achane 25.5, Raheem Mostert 15.8.
WR: Justin Jefferson 5.8, A.J. Brown 21.7, Marquise Brown 16.1.
TE: Travis Kelce 22.7, T.J. Hockenson 10.1, Zach Ertz 9.0.
DST: New Orleans 24.0, Tennessee 1.0, Houston 4.0, Pittsburgh 18.0.
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