New draft strategy starting to catch steam
I wrote a story last July about using Hero RB or Zero RB for your draft, and two of the six running backs I mentioned played big roles in their team’s success.
Dallas’ Tony Pollard had a big year and forced the Cowboys to release Ezekiel Elliott, while Green Bay’s A.J. Dillon gave the Packers a nice 1-2 punch with Aaron Jones.
Well, now it looks like the bigger sites are starting to catch on to the strategy of Zero RB.
I’ve preached the last couple seasons that the league had changed to a QB league, and it appears more and more experts are embracing the change.
According to FantasyPros’ points per reception ECR, 14 wide receivers are ranked in Top 24 picks.
And the stats back up the change.
The Top 24 fantasy scorers at RB and WR had a 1,200 possible games played the last three seasons. The wide receivers played in 96 percent of those games from the 2020-22 seasons, while the running backs played in 91 percent of those games, buoyed by last season’s 95 percent mark.
To get back to the point of those who have not used the Zero-RB strategy, here are some keys items to keep in mind.
1. WR1s are harder to replace.
The back-up for Cooper Kupp will not generate the same opportunities as Kupp would have. But if an RB1 falls to injury, his backup will get close to similar opportunities.
The problem arises because teams’ No. 2 and No. 3 WRs start to pick up the slack unlike the WR1’s backup.
The perfect example was Cincinnati’s Joe Mixon missing Week 13 and Week 14 last season. Samaje Perine averaged 24 touches in his two games he started in place of Mixon.
2. The RB Dead Zone has not been as dead in recent seasons.
The Dead Zone is Rounds 3 through 7 in your fantasy drafts, but personally I would push the zone to Round 5. I’m taking three WRs, a TE and a top-end QB in my first five rounds, especially in leagues that must start three WRs like the NFFC Primetime $1,750 entry.
According the NFFC average draft position, these RBs are available in the 6th and 7th rounds – Miles Sanders, Cam Akers, Dameon Pierce, D’Andre Swift, Javonte Williams, Rachaad White, Alexander Mattison, James Conner, Isiah Pacheco, David Montgomery and James Cook.
Those are names I have no problem taking after loading up on the top WRs!
Here is a breakdown of a few of those 11 RBs:
Miles Sanders, Carolina – Reports from camp have the coaches expecting Sanders to be a 3-down back. The Panthers will be starting a rookie QB which usually hurts the starting RB, but you can’t turn down the workload of a possible 3-down back.
Cam Akers, LA Rams – In his last six games, he had 13 or more touches in each game and averaged 17.68 fantasy points. However, Kupp was missing from the Rams offense during that stretch.
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay – White finished with 30 receptions in his last 7 games last season, and now Baker Mayfield appears to be the leader as QB1 this fall for the Bucs. Mayfield targets his RBs 19.1 percent of the time on drop backs.
David Montgomery, Detroit – The hype of the Lions’ running backs has been around rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, but Montgomery will probably have the role Jamaal Williams had last season. Williams only led the league in rushing TDs with 17.
James Cook, Buffalo – Two items pointed to Cook becoming the No. 1 RB in the Bills’ high-powered offense even before preseason began – Devin Singletary was let go during free agency and free agent signee Damien Harris is more a power back than a receiving one. And now camp news has Cook playing a significant role this season.
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