Momentum building to a successful weekend
It was a good Thanksgiving in NFL DFS, and it brings a positive outlook for DraftKings Main Slate today.
I had a couple of lineups score 169 or more on Turkey Day to build some momentum, especially after another disappointing cash build last week of only 89.66 points.
This weekend is shaping up to be a successful one. My spreadsheet was on point on Thanksgiving and now the weekend top plays have a low rostered numbers.
Let’s work some holiday magic heading into the Christmas season.
Don’t forget to check out my spreadsheet, and you can use the sheet for prop bets as well.
My spreadsheet can be found on my Patreon page: https://www.patreon.com/fantasyfbguru
This year Patreon is allowing weekly trials. For $5 ($7.50 of IoS), you can check my spreadsheet on a weekly basis. And if you like it, you can get the whole month for $15.
Onto this week’s Top Plays:
My Top Play
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia ($7,700) rostered: 8 percent
Hurts’ rostered number is in the 8 percent range, which doesn’t compute since the Ravens are the second worst pass defense in the league. Last week, he finished with only 179 passing yards and a TD and 39 rushing yards as Saquon Barkley stole the show with two long TD runs. But the Ravens are a Top 10 defense vs. the run this season.
Other Top QBs
LA Rams’ Matthew Stafford ($5,800, 4.5 percent) and Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow ($7,000, 7 percent) both are rostered at 7 percent or less. They both are top plays in GPPs. Stafford faces New Orleans’ bottom 3 pass defense, while Burrow is my top value on my spreadsheet despite playing Pittsburgh’s top pass defense.
LA Chargers’ Justin Herbert ($5,600) is the fourth QB I have my eye on this week. Herbert is more of a cash game play with his rostered number (10 percent) as one of the highest this week at QB. One QB I’m fading that a lot of other pundits are suggesting is Indianapolis’ Anthony Richardson ($5,500, 5 percent). I’m not going to trust him in the cold weather at Foxborough.
My Top Play
Running Back
Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay ($5,800, 9 percent)
Irving’s rostered number will probably be higher as we get closer to lock, but it’s hard to ignore his matchup vs. Carolina. The Panthers are the worst rush defense in the league, giving up 160.5 rush yards a game. Irving should handle most of the rushing attempts for the Bucs but he is still splitting the backfield with Rachaad White with some Sean Tucker sprinkled in. I know the total on this game is 46.5 points, but these two have averaged 34.8 combined points in their last five games in Charlotte. Irving should provide a big role in the clock running quickly this week.
Other Top RBs
New Orleans’ Alvin Kamara ($7,700, 25 percent) and Houston’s Joe Mixon ($8,000, 18 percent) are my other top targets and should be good plays in cash and GPPs. Kamara will be playing in a game that is expected to see plenty of offensive fireworks, while Mixon should bounce back after a bad week against the Jacksonville rush defense (26th, 135.5 yards a game).
Philadelphia’s Saquon Barkley ($8,500, 12 percent) and Baltimore’s Derrick Henry ($7,800, 11 percent) have lower rostered numbers but it is hard to pick one as the teams face each other. Cincinnati’s Chase Brown ($6,200, 28 percent) is receiving a prime Christian McCaffrey workload that has DFS players flocking to him. I will use him but not in any Bengals stacks vs. the Pittsburgh rush defense (4th, 90.3 yards a game).
My Top Play
Wide Receiver
Puka Nacua, LA Rams ($7,600, 13 percent)
Nacua has been a target hog since returning from his early season injury. Throw out the one game where he was ejected, Puka has seen 11.25 targets a game and has averaged more than 100 yards in those four games. It shouldn’t stop today vs. the Saints pass defense (30th, 256.6 yards a game).
Other Top WRs
Philadelphia’s A.J. Brown ($8,300, 12 percent) has a head scratcher for his rostered number vs. the Baltimore shaky pass defense (31st, 277.7 yards a game). Plus, Davonta Smith is not expected to play today for the Eagles. LA Rams’ Cooper Kupp ($7,400, 11 percent) should be fine double stack or a single stack with Stafford. Two cheap targets to fill lineups are Carolina’s David Moore ($3,500, 10 percent) and New England’s Kendrick Bourne ($3,500, 3 percent). I’m going to use both in my lineups but I’m leaning more to Bourne to have a more productive day.
My Top Play
Tight End
Austin Hooper, New England ($3,200, 3 percent)
I don’t really have a top play from this group this week so I’m going with a cheap guy. Hooper may not be the starter but he has seen 4 targets in each of the last three games. The weather may be less than favorable today as well, leading to shorter pass targets.
Other TE Plays
New Orleans’ Taysom Hill ($5,000, 3 percent) should see his rostered number tick up before lock but when he’s popular, he tends to disappoint. I will list the rest of my TE sprinkles today.
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay ($4,500, 6 percent)
Mark Andrews, Baltimore ($3,900, 6 percent)
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh ($3,500, 3 percent)
Tommy Tremble, Carolina ($2,800, 3 percent)
Top DSTs
NY Jets ($2,500) home against Seattle
Houston ($3,500) at Jacksonville
DK by the Numbers Week 12
Cash Core 4
QB: Tommy DeVito 10.76
RB: Joe Mixon 9.5
WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown 12.2
TE: Luke Schoonmaker 14.5
Others
QB: Bo Nix 19.42, Brandon Allen 10.46, Jared Goff 10.76, Kyler Murray 11.3.
RB: James Conner 9.9, Brian Robinson Jr. 3.4, David Montgomery 16.3, Tyrone Tracy Jr. 10.0.
WR: Courtland Sutton 29.7, Calvin Ridley 14.3, Jaxon Smith-Njigba 19.7, Alex Pierce 4.9.
TE: Travis Kelce 12.2, Theo Johnson 6.9.
DST: Denver 10.0, Washington 4.0.
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