NFL DFS Week 15

Let's cook up another big week

The beauty of DFS was on display last week.

I had my best score of the season, however, I didn’t even come close to a big win. Last week featured one of the highest DFS scoring weeks of the season.

The $700K Play-Action winner scored 283.68 DraftKings points as they had Josh Allen’s 54.88 points leading the way. They also didn’t stack him and his only bring-back was LA Rams’ Puka Nacua’s 44.8 points.

I finished with 205.08 points with my best lineup as I stacked Minnesota. I had Sam Darnold, Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson as they combined for 115.08 points. However, I superstacked the game with T.J. Hockenson and Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson. Robinson was serviceable, but Hockenson was a dud at 8.2 points. Seattle’s Zach Charbonnet was my other RB with his 41.30 points.

Well, unfortunately, we only have four weeks of the regular season for DFS. But I tackle the playoff as well, so we have a few extra weeks.

When the NFL playoffs start, I will be a busy man, handling NBA and PGA DFS on DFSKarma.com.  Definitely looking forward for PGA to return!

Don’t forget to check out my spreadsheet, and you can use the sheet for prop bets as well.

My spreadsheet can be found on my Patreon page: https://www.patreon.com/fantasyfbguru

This year Patreon is allowing weekly trials. For $5 ($7.50 of IoS), you can check my spreadsheet on a weekly basis. And if you like it, you can get the whole month for $15.

Onto this week’s Top Plays:

My Top Play

Quarterback

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami ($6,100, rostered: 5 percent)

I know Buffalo’s Josh Allen ($8,500, 8 percent) and Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow ($7,300, 6 percent) will be preferred by a lot DFS players on Sunday. However, I’m taking Tua as he is ranked second on my spreadsheet this week, ahead of Allen and Burrow. Tua and the Miami offense has scored 23 points or more since his return from IR. And he has averaged 27.4 DK points during his last four games. Plus, Houston has been vulnerable vs. the pass in its last three games, giving up 279 passing yards a game.

Other QBs

I already have Allen and Burrow in some early builds and they along with Tua will be in at least 2 builds each. Three other QBs who have sneaky GPP upside are Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes ($6,700, 5 percent), Cleveland’s Jameis Winston ($5,500, 6 percent) and NY Jets’ Aaron Rodgers ($5,400, 4 percent).

My Top Play

Running Back

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit ($7,500, 9 percent)

I’m not sure why Gibbs is less than 10 percent rostered because this is a juicy matchup for both Detroit RBs. Buffalo is a middle of the road run defense but are a bottom 3 in DK points allowed to RBs. The Bills has given up 74 receptions to RBs this season (tied for 1st with Tampa Bay), which fits Gibbs skillset. David Montgomery ($7,000, 7 percent) is a great play as well, but Gibbs gives you the big boom plays that win GPPs.

Other RBs

I will be sprinkling several other RBs this week as the rostered numbers are not centralized on one guy this week. Baltimore’s Derrick Henry ($8,300, 16 percent) is expensive and is pulling in some higher rostered numbers but he could have 100 yards and 2 TDs before halftime vs. the Giants defense giving up more than 25 fantasy points to RB this season. Dallas’ Rico Dowdle ($6,100, 13 percent) is a big reason the Cowboys put themselves back in the playoff hunt. He has averaged 18.1 DK points the last three weeks and faces a Carolina defense that has given up almost 29 fantasy points to RBs this season. Cincinnati’s Chase Brown ($7,200, 19 percent) has the best volume usage of this week’s RBs, while NY Jets’ Breece Hall ($6,400, 9 percent) can be sneaky if he plays as he faces the Jacksonville bad run defense.

My Top Play

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill, Miami ($7,400, 7 percent)

I’m still puzzled by the early low rostered numbers for the Dolphins. Hill absolutely owns bad pass defenses and the Texans are giving up 177 receiving yards a game to WRs this season. Plus, Hill has seen an uptick in targets since Tua’s return and his sore wrist seems to be improving. He has been targeted 37 times in the Dolphins’ last 4 games.

Other WRs

I cannot leave out Miami’s Jaylen Waddle ($5,700, 5 percent). He joins Hill in my Top 10 this week as he continues to be mispriced in my opinion. Three weeks ago he was priced at $5,300 and he has averaged 21.2 DK points in that stretch. He should be $6K or higher so I'll take the discount. Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase ($8,400, 16 percent), Washington’s Terry McLaurin ($7,200, 7 percent), NY Jets’ Davante Adams ($6,900, 8 percent), Denver’s Courtland Sutton ($6,600, 14 percent) and Carolina’s Adam Thielen ($5,400, 8 percent) are all solid options. While three spend down options stood out on my spreadsheet: Buffalo's Keon Coleman ($4,800, 3 percent), Detroit’s Tim Patrick ($4,300, 3 percent) and Denver’s Marvin Mims Jr. ($4,000, 2 percent).

My Top Play

Tight End

Stone Smartt, LA Chargers ($2,600, 6 percent)

I fully expect Smartt’s rostered numbers to explode before the 1 p.m. lock tomorrow. He has a cheap salary and is expected to have a big role in the offense with Will Dissly missing the game. Plus, the Buccaneers have struggled vs. TEs this season, giving up 5.89 receptions and 70.5 receiving yards a game.

Other TEs

I’ll make this easy – here is my list of TEs I will be playing besides Smartt.

- Kansas City’s Travis Kelce ($5,700, 7 percent): It’s a homecoming game and Tay-Tay is expected to be at the game.

- Arizona’s Trey McBride ($6,000, 14 percent): His target share continues to be elite despite no TDs.

- Washington’s Zach Ertz ($4,000, 6 percent): His role has expanded the last three weeks as he’s seen 21 targets and scored 15.7 DK points a game.

Top DSTs

Pittsburgh ($2,800) at Philadelphia

Dallas ($2,800) at Carolina

New England ($2,400) at Arizona

DK by the Numbers Week 13

Cash Core 4

QB: Will Levis 7.02

RB: Bijan Robinson 20.1

WR: Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 2.9

TE: Brock Bowers 8.2

Others

QB: Sam Darnold 37.58, Tua Tagovailoa 26.54, Matthew Stafford 23.8, Kyler Murray 19.96, Jalen Hurts 24.22.

RB:  Saquon Barkley 17.4, Tony Pollard 17.4, Isaac Guerendo 26.8, Braelon Allen 12.1, Zach Charbonnet 41.3.

WR: Puka Nacua 44.8, Jordan Addison 42.3, Justin Jefferson 35.2, Jakobi Meyers 13.7, D.J. Moore 10.9, Keenan Allen 6.0.

TE: Trey McBride 14.0, Greg Calcaterra 10.6.

DST: Steelers 10.0, Titans 9.0.

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