Hey all and welcome to the Thanksgiving GPP Breakdown! I'll be available on the Borisville Discord on Thanksgiving morning if anyone has some questions. I'll update ownership as well as some key ins and outs too.
Let's get into it!
Thanksgiving GPP Slate Overview
I love the random three game slate we get here toward the end of November. Ownership continues to matter on such a slate, but gone is the rule about fading highly owned players, and hello to the rule about deciding which highly owned players (chalk) we will have to eat. If Josh Allen is indeed going to be the highest scoring QB by a significant margin, then we are probably going to have to be like 50% of the field and just play him.
The ownership on a three game slate is going to fluctuate a bit from what their actual numbers are. More than any other slate, they are but a guide and not an exact science. Here are the ownership projections for Thanksgiving GPPs.
Stefon Diggs - 67.1%
CeeDee Lamb - 61.6%
Dawson Knox - 46.6%
Dalton Schultz - 45.3%
Devin Singletary 42.4%
Dalvin Cook - 42.4%
Dak Prescott - 42.1%
Saquon Barkley - 38.6%
Josh Allen - 37.5%
Rhamondre Stevenson - 36.8%
New England Patriots - 36.7%
Justin Jefferson - 35.4%
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 31.8%
Gabe Davis - 31%
Tony Pollard - 29.2%
Thanksgiving GPP Ownership Quick Takes
If I am eating chalk at the WR position, I prefer Diggs over Lamb.
I have a hard time believing Dak will be higher owned than Allen.
I'm not sure Dal Cook will be that highly owned.
The Schultz and Knox ownership makes sense considering their price.
The Pats should indeed be the highest owned DST.
I think Pollard will be more highly owned than 29.2.
Thanksgiving GPP Plays
QB
Regardless of whether Dak or Allen is the highest owned is almost irrelevant. Both should account for north of 75% ownership in Thanksgiving GPP contests. Both are viable in terms of their abilities and their offenses being quite good. So we need to ask ourselves are there any other viable QBs that we can turn to?
Kirk Cousins is historically bad in primetime games and he faces one of the best defenses in football. Verdict: Pass.
Daniel Jones does seem to be benefitting from Brian Daboll's offense and could be someone we can turn toward. However, the Cowboys defense is legit. Yes, Micah Parsons left last game, but he was a limited participant in Tuesday's practice which is a good sign. Trevon Diggs also practiced in full. Additionally, just as the Gmen seemed to have everything figured out at WR, Wan'Dale Robinson went down with a season ending injury. Daniel Jones might be running for his life against this pass rush though, so Jones' rushing upside is in play. Verdict: Include (albeit limited).
Jared Goff is much better at home and the game total of 54 is suggestive of a shootout. Goff may get weapons like DJ Chark and Jameson Williams back this week, so going here at projected ownership percentage of 5.8% is enticing. The Lions can't keep lucking in to 1st and goals from the 1 yard line can they? Verdict: Include.
Mac Jones's ownership right now is 2%. Verdict: Include. Yeah, I don't care about charts and history on this one. With only 6 QBs to choose from, at $5100 Jones could throw for 250 and 2 TDs and be an optimal QB if the other two games break a certain way. So we are clear though, I'm not about to make 50 lineups with Jones at QB. I might make 5 though.
November Josh Allen has not been playing as well as October and September Josh Allen. Dak Prescott is too highly owned in my opinion. $1 million might be waiting out there for someone with the stones to not play Allen or Dak.
I'm likely playing close to 85% Josh Allen. No one else has the upside he has. Going this heavy puts me over the field against his ownership.
RB
Damein Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson went back to splitting snaps. Stevenson played more and was more involved in the passing game. Harris could possibly fall into the end zone once or twice to help you win a Thanksgiving GPP contest.
Saquon is going to be low owned. If you're stacking Allen and Diggs or Dak and Lamb, getting to Saquon will be tough, especially for optimizers.
James Cook is probably going to be more highly owned than the 5.6% that I have. I suspect they'll be many "Hey look, that's cute, I'll play Cook and Cook at RB" lineups. I won't be doing that.
If Devin Singletary is going to be the highest owned RB, that's an easy fade for me. I'm not confident that he will be the highest owed one though.
WR
You can play any of the top guys. If eating chalk, I'm going to play Diggs. If finding leverage, I'll play Jefferson. The playbook with Belichick though is to take away the opposing team's best weapon.
Lions WRs not named Amon-Ra are sneaky. We'll need to pay attention to who is in and who is out on this one.
A 3 - 4K receiver is probably going to win someone the slate.
I'll have some double stacks paired with my QBs.
TE
TJ Hockenson will be lower owned than other TEs.
Pats TEs will be low owned.
A random Detroit or Giant TE could win you the slate.
Both Knox and Schultz will be highly owned individually, but I bet there will be plenty of lineups that have both.
DST
I am only playing the Patriots, Cowboys and Lions.
Thanks for checking out my Thanksgiving GPP break down. Good luck in your Thanksgiving GPP contests!
Follow me on Twitter at @Borisnow00 (If it's still around) and follow my man Danny Carpenter too!