Hey all welcome to the Week 11 GPP Breakdown!
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Week 11 GPP Ownership Report
It's been a fluctuating week in terms of ownership for Week 11 GPPs thus far, and I expect that to continue into the weekend. With the Browns v Bills game going from chalk, to severely low owned due to Lake Effect Snowmageddon, to being back on the table with a game in Detroit, it's thrown my projections for a loop. There's also some weird algorithmic issues going with players like Justin Fields. Rotowire, whom I'm not going to even give the favor of linking to their website, has Justin Fields at 1.62% ownership. How you even put that on your website and try to stay reputable is beyond me.
So I've had to make some manual changes this week. Anyway, the point is to get a sense of where most people are going and try to find leverage spots for Week 11 GPPs. Here's were things currently stand:
Saquon Barkley - 27.3%
Stefon Diggs - 22.3%
Cedee Lamb - 21.2%
Justin Jefferson - 16.5%
David Montgomery - 16.2%
Alvin Kamara - 15.6%
Daniel Jones - 15.6%
Joe Mixon - 14.7%
Josh Jacobs - 14.6%
Rhamondre Stevenson - 13.8%
Josh Allen - 13.7%
Terry McLaurin - 12.7%
Marcus Mariota - 12.4%
Dal Cook - 12.2%
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 11.9%
Highest Owned Week 11 GPP Defenses
Saints - 12.5%
Texans - 12.4%
Rams - 9.5%
Commanders - 8.9%
Panthers - 8.8%
Week 11 GPP Stacks
Due to me not fully trusting the ownership numbers this week, I'm not going to label anything as a "chalk stack." Instead I'll go over the areas where I think people will go and highlight where I am going to go and where I am not for Week 11 GPPs.
Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
For the second week in a row, Justin Fields was your GPP winning QB in Week 10. Can he make that three in row? I doubt it. That being said, I have no problem playing Fields with one of his pass catchers, but I have a huge problem playing Marcus Mariota stacks in Week 11 GPP contests. With a 49 point total, many are going to be eyeballing this game. I am not. Yeah, I might play a piece or two in case there is some kind of shootout here, but a full game stack isn't for me. The Falcons don't throw the ball!
Cleveland Browns sorta kinda @ Buffalo Bills
This game is the reason I am up late into Friday evening finishing this article. As of this writing there is over 5 feet of snow in the Buffalo area, and this game is going to be played in Detroit. As of this writing, the Bills have not actually made it out of Western NY yet. If they don't, we can all just ignore this section.
I currently have Josh Allen at 13.7% ownership, and my guess is it will be higher, especially considering Diggs is projected to be the second highest owned player. I'm okay with stacking this game, though I would lean playing Davis over Diggs to get different. Nick Chubb is probably going to rack up over 100 yards again, so he is in play too. I have him at 6% ownership, which is just too low. Amari Cooper looks low owned as well, but again, much can change by Sunday morning.
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings
This game has a 48.5 total. I can't do it, I don't chase previous weeks' performances. Ceedee Lamb was 4.7% owned last week, and now he's the 3rd highest owned player in Week 11 GPPs? Yeah, the Vikings secondary is not good, but this game is my leading candidate for the under in Week 11. The Boys defense is dynamic, Kirk Cousins is not. The Boys like to run the ball and some serious ownership is coming in on Lamb and Jefferson. I get it, I'm just going elsewhere this week.
If I were to go here, I'd entertain players like Gallup, Schultz, and Thielen to get a little different.
My Week 11 GPP Stacks
Joe Burrow (7.3% owned) with a pass catcher or two. I'm fading Mixon because of TJ Watt, Mixon's ownership, and the law of averages making a 5 TD day unlikely. On the other side, Dionte Johnson and Kenny Pickett have under 5% ownership. The Moose is around 8%.
Josh Allen with 1 or 2 of his pass catchers. Gabe Davis is high on my list.
Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews. I got Lamar under 10% ownership. He typically comes off the bye running like a madman. Andrews is under 10% ownership as well; he practiced in full on Friday. Gus Edwards is dealing with a hamstring issue again and the weather looks raw in Baltimore on Sunday. As such I could see Kenyan Drake with a decent day too.
Fields with one pass catcher. That pass catcher is either Mooney or Kmet. The Fields/Kmet combo coming through for the third week in row seems statistically unlikely though.
Jalen Hurts intrigues me if he's going to use his legs this week. Colts are the 2nd best team vs WRs though but have trouble stopping the run. Jonathan Taylor is at 10% ownership.
Week 11 GPP One-Offs
Devante Adams is under 10% owned again.
Miles Sanders is 6.7% owned and the Colts are vulnerable to the run game.
An Amon-Ra explosion game is coming.
Chris Olave looks low owned.
Courtland Sutton gets over 10 targets whenever Jerry Jeudy is not on the field. The Broncos are short some linemen this week, so Russell Wilson might be under duress on Sunday.
Kendall Hinton might be WR2 for the Broncos this Sunday.
D'Onta Foreman is low owned.
Patriots defense may eat yet again.
Thanks for checking out my Week 11 GPP break down. Good luck in your Week 11 GPP contests!
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