Hey all and welcome to the Week 12 GPP breakdown! I hope you had a nice Thanksgiving. I pretty much broke even in my GPP contests, but man do I love it when I'm right. Outside of a few plays, I was happy with my ownership algorithm as well as my own ability to identify areas where it is broken, e.g. Josh Allen and Tony Pollard's ownership numbers. Let's try to duplicate that for the Week 12 GPP slate!
Sorry for the delay in getting this article out Saturday morning. There was some practice information that broke late yesterday that I knew would severely affect ownership numbers. So I waited a little just to be in a better spot to have accurate information.
I am little more excited about this slate now as the RB landscape has created some nice spots to get different in Week 12 GPP contests.
Let's get into it!
Week 12 GPP Ownership Report
Tyreek Hill - 23.7%
Rachaad White - 19.9%
Patrick Mahomes - 19.1%
Kansas City Chiefs - 17.7%
Jeff Willson - 17.6%
Davante Adams - 16.4%
Christian McCaffery - 15.5%
Travis Kelce - 15%
Austin Ekeler - 14.8%
Latavius Murray - 14.7%
Garrett Wilson - 14.3%
Josh Jacobs - 14.3%
Jaylen Waddle - 13.4%
Derrick Henry - 13.2%
Samaje Perine - 13.1%
Quick Ownership Takes
With Joe Mixon, Raheem Mostert and Leonard Fournette all likely out, I think either Rachaad White or Jeff Wilson will be the highest owned on the slate and not Tyreek Hill. Maybe even the Chiefs will sneak in there as well.
I will be playing zero Chiefs DSTs in Week 12 GPPs. Yeah, I know the Rams are starting a backup QB. That also means their number one priority will be protecting the ball, and it's not like they're going to throw a lot and give the defense opportunities for turnovers. I don't play chalk defenses.
My rough draft ownership projections had Kenneth Walker at between 14 - 15% owned. With the emergence of 3 chalky backup/rookie RBs, Walker's ownership, and some other's that we'll get to, have gone down. I currently have Walker at 12.3%.
Davante Adams feels like chasing.
Lat Murray being this highly owned is a joke. Then again so aren't the Broncos. Murray probably would've been higher before Perine, White and Wilson came into the picture.
Week 12 GPP Chalk Stack
The Kansas City Chiefs
Despite a game total that features a 41.5 total, Vegas is giving the Chiefs an implied team total of 27.5 as they are 15.5 point favorites. Anytime Mahomes is on the main slate, he should be considered. Most people will pair him with Kelce, so I would urge you to consider a double stack with JuJu, MVS, Watson, or even an RB. Fading Kelce from your Mahomes stack is in play, but only for those who are not faint of heart. The Rams defense is also half decent and their secondary is healthy, so a true ceiling game for Mahomes may not be in the cards.
My Week 12 GPP Stacks
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans
Yet again, Joe Burrow is coming in at low ownership. Why he keeps getting disrespected is beyond me. Also, he may get one of his best offensive weapons back in Ja'Marr Chase, but we will have to wait until Sunday morning to know that. In or out though, another 30 DK point outing is in the cards for Burrow.
I am fully fading Samaje Perine. This is a passing offense that is facing a team vulnerable to the pass as they are allowing the 2nd most passing yards against per game. Also, Chris Evans is returning to the lineup as well. I'm not sure the Bengals are ready to anoint Perine with RB1 snaps. Even if they did, I think the Bengals will be throwing. I do not see Perine lucking into to another 3 TD catches this week.
I'll be stacking Burrow with Chase, Higgins, Boyd and Hurst. I'm fine running it back with Henry or Burks as well.
If you're a riverboat gambler and think a shootout is definitely on here, Ryan Tannehill will not be owned.
Houston Texans @ Miami Dolphins
If Wilson is going to be chalky, then I like stacking Tua with Hill and/or Waddle instead. While attacking the Texans on the ground is the way to go, and to be honest Wilson probably does eclipse 100 total yards, the Dolphins could just as easily attack in the air here.
I'll be playing some Wilson in Week 12 GPP contests, but I will also stack the passing group.
Stacking Tua with Wilson will be a little different.
Dameon Pierce or one of the Texan WRs could be a good run back, but I'm not sure it's necessary this week.
Week 12 GPP One-offs and Skinny Stacks
I love playing one of Metcalf or Lockett in Week 12 GPPs. For one reason, they are lower owned. The second reason is that the Raider secondary has not been good. I suppose you could do a Geno Smith stack here, but I think Walker will be involved and probably have a rushing TD or 2.
On the other side is Davante Adams of course, but Josh Jacobs will be lower owned than Adams and makes for a nice contrarian move.
DJ Moore won't be owned and now has a QB who actually likes to throw him the ball.
Chris Olave is good for double digit fantasy points every week. He'll be like 6 -8% owned.
Justin Fields' ownership is looking low with his Questionable tag. His injury does have people concerned about his rushing upside. I'll probably have a couple lineups that I may have to change if Fields is ruled out last minute. If Fields were to miss...or even play and run less, a 6.5% owned David Montgomery intrigues me.
James Conner will be a nice contrarian option. If Kyler Murray doesn't play, Conner could be leaned on in this matchup.
I will being considering eating the Rachaad White chalk. I just think the potential of him being over 40% owned is in play though.
In another time and in another place, Kyren Williams would be chalk heading into the Week 12 GPP slate. Despite Darrell Henderson being cut and Cam Akers being terrible, Williams will have sub 4% ownership for a team that may have no other choice than to run the ball this weekend. White costs $5100. Williams is $4900 and thus great leverage.
George Kittle is fantastic leverage at the TE spot. He looks about 5% owned.
Deandre Hopkins might be the best leverage out of the highest priced WRs.
Josh Palmer looks too low owned (6%) for the kind of numbers he puts up when Mike Williams is out.
Drake London should have low ownership. He has been the only Falcon pass catcher finding the end zone lately, unless you count Cordarelle Patterson as a pass catcher. Both won't have much ownership this weekend.
Jahan Dotson is a forgotten man in fantasy football right now. I love the kid, especially at 3% ownership.
Thanks for checking out my Week 12 GPP break down. Good luck in your Week 12 GPP contests!
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