Hey all and welcome to the Week 13 GPP Recap. Man, it's getting frustrating with the chalk keeps hitting week after week. Three of the top four owned players are in the Week 13 GPP winning lineup. It has to break at some point right? Right???
Join. The. Discord. So much changed on Sunday morning with some late breaking news.
Let's get into it.
Week 13 GPP Ownership Review
Below are the highest owned players in Week 13 GPPs. To the left are the Sunday morning final ownership projections, on the right are the Week 13 GPP actual ones.
Josh Jacobs - 23.9% / 16.1%
Austin Ekeler - 20.3% / 18.7%
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 19% / 28.2%
Garrett Wilson - 17.3% / 33.1%
Joe Burrow - 16.4% / 15.7%
Pittsburgh Steelers - 16.3% / 16%
Nick Chubb - 14.8% / 21.8%
Travis Etienne - 14.4% / 11.3%
Trevor Lawrence - 14.2% / 14.2%
Kenneth Walker - 14.1% / 9.5%
Davante Adams - 13.6% / 9.8%
Zonovan "Bam" Knight - 13.5% / 15.4%
Week 13 GPP Ownership Takes
A lot changed on Sunday morning with news about Etienne and Joe Mixon. This kind of late info made the ownership algorithm go bananas. But we keep up with everything on Discord.
If I had known Wilson would be 33% owned, I would have probably faded. He was gaining steam on Sunday morning so the projections had a tough time keeping up with that, thus the gigantic difference in projection vs actuality.
With the Mixon news breaking in the morning, I figured Samaje Perine would carry ownership. 17.6% ownership was higher than I expected though.
Bam Knight ended up being one of the higher owned RBs in Week 13 GPPs. He ended up providing the savings needed to enable the winning lineup to fight all the necessary pieces.
Christian Watson was a surprise at 16% ownership. I had him at 4.5% so I need to do some investigating with that one.
The algorithm appears broken when it comes to CMC. Week after week he appears to have ownership but then always comes in around 5%. This week he landed at 12.5% in my projections, which was inaccurate. One of these days when the chalk doesn't hit, he could be a tournament winner again.
Count me as surprised that Jacobs was not more highly owned. I attribute that to Knight and Perine becoming viable.
My Best Lineup vs the Winning Lineup
My Best Lineup - 165. 7 DK Points
Hurts
Henry
Jacobs
DeVonta Smith
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Nico Collins
Evan Engram
Skyy Moore
Texans
The Winning Lineup - 220.3 DK Points
Goff
Swift
Knight
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Kirk
Garrett Wilson
Conklin
Adams
Browns
The Good
Outside of Jared Goff, I had every player in that winning lineup in several of my own, though I did come in under the field on Bam Knight.
I had 20 lineups with Hurts stacked with AJ Brown and/or DeVonta Smith. I wish had more.
I had a good amount of Davante Adams, but he was just extremely difficult to get to at his high price so I didn't have much of him in my Burrow or Hurts stacks. It was the performance of lower priced QBs that made getting to Adams viable.
I did write up the Jags and Lions game, and that proved to be the winning environment. This just fuels the idea to identify the games with the higher totals as the best paths to success.
Both Metcalf and Lockett had fantastic days. I also got a lot enjoyment out of watching Metcalf live in Ramsay's head all day.
Christian Watson remains viable with Doubs out of the lineup.
I ended up playing zero Deshaun Watson. That feels good from both an analytic perspective as well as a moral one.
The Neutral
Man it was great to see Ja'Marr out there again. Next time do a little more, please.
In the Discord on Sunday morning I announced that I was making a few Tua lineups. He ended up being 3% owned. Despite their missing linemen, I couldn't pass up the opportunity to get exposure to the Dolphins. Tua ended up doing better than most probably thought, but his 3 turnovers and missing the 300 yard bonus by 5 yards didn't get the job done.
Lamar left the game early. I played zero even though I would normally jump all over a 1.9% owned Lamar Jackson. Keep Tyler Huntley in mind, he's won GPPs before.
From an ownership perspective, Justin Jefferson (5.7%) and Tyreek Hill (6.1%) were indeed the pivots among the high priced WRs. Jefferson had a decent day and Tyreek had an exceptional one. But again, the chalk hit. Thems the breaks.
The guys I mentioned from the Texans and Falcons had decent days, but not Week 13 GPP winning ones.
The Bad
Even with Hurts coming in as the highest scoring QB by a significant margin in Week 13 GPPs, Goff's performance at his salary enabled the winner to squeeze in the likes of Davante Adams and Amon-Ra. I had zero Goff, but in previous weeks I made arguments as to why he should be considered. This one is on me.
Tyler Conklin ended up not coming through. In the winning lineup above I actually think Conklin at the TE spot was a terrible decision. Evan Engram, who cost just $100 less, would have been a better fit in the Detroit/Jacksonville stack. This would have increased the winning lineup's total by 11 DK points. It actually upsets me that the winning lineup had 3 Jets in it without a run back nor the QB. Talk about luck.
The Browns were the ticket to victory this week. Defense can be such a crapshoot. I played a lot of Texans because 1. they were cheap and 2. Watson hadn't played football in 2 years. I stand by that play. A 30 point DK performance is a fluke. That being said, I had exposure, just not enough.
Catch you all next week! Thanks for checking out my Week 13 GPP Recap!
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