Hey all and welcome to the Week 14 GPP Breakdown! At first glance, this slate made me feel like this:
However, after looking at some of the ownership and situations, we have some spots to get different this week. I love these opportunities. We just need the chalk to not hit yet again this week.
Let's get into it!
Week 14 GPP Ownership Report
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 24.2%
Ceedee Lamb - 23.8%
Derrick Henry - 21.5%
Dalvin Cook - 20.1%
Justin Jefferson - 18.3%
D'Andre Swift - 17.8%
Stefon Diggs - 16.8%
Adam Thielen - 14.9%
Christian McCaffrey - 13.7%
Dak Prescott - 13.3%
Tony Pollard - 13.2%
Joe Mixon - 12.9%
Pittsburgh Steelers - 12.1%
Greg Dulcich - 12%
Buffalo Bills - 11.8%
As always, there will be updates. Join the Discord here.
Week 14 GPP Chalk Stacks
The Dallas Cowboys
The Houston Texans ownership numbers are not high, but the Dallas Cowboys' ones are for Week 14 GPPs. Most are going to stack Dak Prescott with Ceedee Lamb or roll out Tony Pollard and/or Zeke Elliott against this horrible rush defense. I personally have no interest stacking the passing game here because I doubt the Texans ability to keep up with Dallas as well as Dallas' commitment to keep throwing should this game get out of hand. I may have a one-off from the Cowboys here as it is likely that they roll over the Texans who are 17 point dogs.
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Amon-Ra St. Brown's ownership should be high yet again in Week 14 GPPs as he gets a Vikings secondary that has struggled. I mean, they just made Mike White look decent. Minnesota is 7th worst vs QBs and 3rd worst vs WRs, so identifying that Amon-Ra will have ownership is not hard. The likelihood of St.Brown being in the winning lineup again is high, so someone with guts to fade this situation could be in good shape to do well in Week 14 GPPs. DJ Chark is someone I am going to use as a pivot. Josh Reynold, Kalif Raymond and newly activated Jameson Williams are prayers in this spot.
Both D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams will be active in this one. Swift's ownership numbers are higher as the DFS industry seems to have anointed him as RB1 as he was more involved in the offense last week. While that probably is true, Jamaal Williams is not going away, especially in goal line situations.
The Lions are not good on defense, so Minnesota stacks will be in play here too. If Kirk Cousins comes in as the optimal QB, he'll likely have two of his teammates with him. Therefore I would double stack the Vikings if going here.
Other Week 14 GPP Stacks
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The total of this game is low. So why am I stacking it? The combination of Tyler Huntley and Mark Andrews took me to a top 5 GPP finish last year, and yes, I am hoping they can do it again in a Week 14 GPP this year. Yes, the Ravens have not looked good with Lamar. Yes, the Ravens did not look particularly good when Huntley came into the game against the Broncos. The good news? Those things will keep both Huntley and Andrews' ownership numbers low. The matchup isn't that great on paper, but the Steelers defense just hasn't been themselves. TJ Watt is back, but he's clearly laboring on the field. LT Ronnie Staley was a full participant in practices this week. This is very good news for the Ravens offense.
On the other side of this matchup, Diontae Johnson and George Pickens are very much in play. The Ravens made the Jaguars offense look good in Week 12. Pickens will run the majority of his routes against CB Marcus Peters who has allowed 5 TDs and the 5th most fantasy points to WRs over the last 8 weeks to opposing WRs.
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow and his pass catchers are in play yet again this week, and I expect Burrow's ownership to drop after a "disappointing" week 13. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will go up against CBs Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson who are struggling of late, particularly against outside WRs, which is what Chase is. Hayden Hurst might be out, Mitchell Wilcox is next on the depth chart. Joe Mixon has been a full participant in practice this week.
Despite being generally bad at football last week, Deshaun Watson did show a propensity for targeting Amari Cooper who may or may not play on Sunday. CB Chidobe Awuzie remains on IR, and the CB combination of rookie Cam Taylor- Britt and Eli Apple are struggling. Cooper went off in this matchup in Week 8, and another week of experience with Deshaun against a soft secondary could lead to a high scoring affair between these two teams. Should Cooper not go, then David Bell and Donovan Peoples-Jones become interesting. Nick Chubb should also be considered here, especially after his lackluster performance in Week 13 (even though he had 80 yards rushing). Chubb went over 100 yards and had 2 TDs in this matchup in week 8.
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks
Don't look now, but I might be up next at RB for the Seattle Seahawks. With some injuries in their backfield, Geno Smith and company could take to the air and that makes them in play for Week 14 GPPs. Tyler Lockett has a TD in 5 straight and 7 in his 8. Lockett should spend much of his day against CB C.J. Henderson who is ranked 102nd by Pro Football Focus. Metcalf will likely have a tougher matchup against CB Jayce Horn, but I would still consider him in Seattle stacks. Will Dissly may miss, that would be good for the fantasy prospects of Noah Fant. Travis Homer and Tony Jones will likely be handling all of the RBs touches in this one.
On the other side, as long as Baker Mayfield isn't QBing for the Panthers, then DJ Moore is in play. I also like D'Onta Foreman who should be fresh coming off the bye to face the 2nd worst defense vs RBs.
Week 14 GPP One-offs and Skinny Stacks
Over the last month, the New York Giants have given up the 8th most fantasy points to WRs. They have a banged up secondary so this could very well be another afternoon where AJ Brown and/or DeVonta Smith eat.
I don't mind turning the above into a stack with Jalen Hurts again. Problem is they are expensive, so if a cheaper stack can come through in Week 14 GPPs, then just grabbing a piece of the expensive WRs could be the way to go.
You can obviously do the same thing with Mahomes and Kelce, but again, they're expensive. Denver's defense is half decent, so a ceiling game for Mahomes might not be realistic.
The Tennessee Titans are the worst team vs WRs. Zay Jones and Chrisitan Kirk are in play.
I wouldn't be afraid of playing Stefon Diggs, but his ownership is something I'll be monitoring tomorrow morning for Week 14 GPPs.
The Tampa v SF game has a low total, so not many from this game are going to be owned. A low owned Chris Godwin intrigues me.
Thanks for checking out my Week 14 GPP break down. Good luck in your Week 14 GPP contests!
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