Hey all and welcome to some bonus NFL Saturday DFS content! There are 3 games on the docket for this Saturday slate of games. I'm not going to lie, Saturday slates always feel a little odd to me. Additionally, 3 game slates are extremely difficult to break down. The decision everyone needs to make is which chalk to eat and which to fade.
Full disclosure...I will be traveling on Saturday so my availability in the Discord will be limited. I cannot imagine that there will be many updates on Saturday morning, but I will do my best to be available. It's only one game every 3 and half hours so it should be okay to manage in terms of staying updated.
Let's get into it!
NFL Saturday DFS Ownership Report
*A note about this Saturday's ownership: more than Sunday, this information is but a guide and not an accurate prediction of how things will fall. With this ownership we can discern, generally, who will be higher owned at each position and at what price. It can make it easier to determine how to attack and how to stack to gain an advantage. Here is the Saturday DFS ownership list:
Dalvin Cook - 60%
Jonathan Taylor - 58.5%
Justin Jefferson - 50.3%
Stefon Diggs - 44%
Kirk Cousins - 35.8%
Adam Thielen - 35.2%
Gabe Davis - 32.6%
Buffalo Bills - 32%
Josh Allen - 31.3%
David Njoku - 29.9%
NFL Saturday DFS Chalk Stack
Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings
This game has this highest total, so it makes sense as to why the Vikings will have a ton of ownership. A popular build this week will be Cousins with Jefferson and then running it back with Taylor. I'll be making sure that none of my builds are done that way.
I'm not entirely sure that I am going to fade Justin Jefferson, but Kirk Cousins is not going to be someone I want to play when he's the highest owned QB. Recency bias is real. Just because Cousins and Jefferson went off against the Lions does not mean they will do so against the Colts, who are the 2nd best teams against WRs. The way to attack the Colts is on the ground, so it makes more sense why Dal Cook has a ton of ownership.
Speaking of that situation though, Alexander Mattison is going to be virtually unowned. Not only does Mattison play 15 - 30% of the snaps when Cook is healthy, but Mattison is one Dal Cook injury away from being the primary RB in a great matchup. This situation just played out last Monday with the Patriots backfield. It's not likely to happen, but there are avenues where Mattison can luck himself into an optimal lineup.
Matt Ryan and company will have less ownership on this Saturday DFS slate, so just like the situation with the Lions last week, I'll stack Ryan and some pass catchers before stacking Cousins with his. The Vikings are 6th worst vs QBs and 2nd worst vs WRs.
2nd Highest Saturday DFS Chalk Stack
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills have not looked as good as they did earlier in the season. As such, their ownership should be a little deflated in the Saturday DFS contests. The Miami Dolphins are 4th worst against opposing QBs and 12th worst vs WRs. This stack makes more statistical sense.
On the other side I am a little skeptical of Tyreek Hill's ownership projection of 21%, but he should be lower owned than Jefferson and Diggs, so he makes for a good pivot among the high end WRs. Tua and Waddle are also carrying low ownership. Just keep the weather in mind on this one as snow showers are possible on Saturday night in Buffalo. That also explains the high Bills DST ownership.
The Other Game
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns
The Tyler Huntley play didn't work out last week, and I'm not big on him this week. The Browns are terrible vs the run though. JK Dobbins returned last week and led the backfield in snaps with 43% of them. Gus Edwards was second with 34%. I have Dobbins around 18% ownership and Edwards under 5%. The Browns are 3rd worst against RBs and the Ravens want to run the ball. Playing a Ravens RB makes a ton of sense statistically and from an ownership perspective as well.
On the other side, Deshaun Watson looked a little better last week and now he gets a Ravens unit that is susceptible to passing attacks. The Ravens D is quite good against the run, and the Browns have had issues running the ball the last two weeks. However, part of that is because they were playing from behind last week. In any event, this is my favorite game to stack in Saturday DFS as it will be lower owned, and there are advantageous matchups here. Njoku could be the highest owned TE on the slate, but Amari and Donovan Peoples-Jones should be lower owned.
Thanks for checking out my Saturday DFS breakdown. Good luck in your Saturday DFS contests! I'll catch you all real quick with the Sunday slate right around the corner!
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