Hey all and welcome to the Week 16 GPP Breakdown for the Saturday main slate! That's right, if for some weird reason you are reading this on Sunday morning, I am sorry but you missed the main slate.
So let's get into the Week 16 GPP Saturday slate!
What They're Playing For
At this point in the fantasy season I find it prudent to find teams and players that still have something to play for. For example, Nick Chubb did not get in a practice this week until Thursday as he is dealing with a toe injury. If you're the 6 - 8 Browns, do you risk further damage to your star RB when you're essentially out of the playoffs?
Also, some players have incentives attached to their contracts. For example, last year Rob Gronkowski needed 55 catches and 750 yards to earn a $1 million bonus in the team's final game. Tom Brady helped make that a reality. These are examples of the questions I ask at this time of year.
At this point, however, pretty much every team who has clinched a playoff spot still has something to play for. The Chiefs and Bills are both looking to clinch home advantage throughout the playoffs. The Cowboys and Eagles are playing on Saturday with the division on the the line, which must mean the Jalen Hurts' injured shoulder is legitimate if he's sitting it out.
Here's another example: the Saints are all but out of it. Alvin Kamara is looking at 11.4% ownership. Kamara is signed through next season with a base salary of over $9 million plus millions more in incentives and bonuses. If you're New Orleans, are you rolling out Kamara for 25 to 30 touches on Saturday? I don't know that I trust them to do that at 11.4% ownership in Week 16 GPPs.
Speaking of which...
Week 16 GPP Ownership Report
* A note about this week's ownership:
I feel like I got caught with my pants down last week when it comes to ownership. I very much would not like to have a repeat of that. I expect much to change over night as national pundits release their picks and plays later on Friday. I will be staying up on those things and adjusting ownership accordingly. Updates will be on the Discord. Here is where we currently stand with Week 16 GPP ownership:
Justin Jefferson - 27.7%
Derrick Henry - 25.8%
Christian McCaffrey - 25.6%
Jerick McKinnon - 24.3%
Dalvin Cook - 20.6%
Saquon Barkley - 17.8%
DK Metcalf - 16.1%
JuJu Smith - Schuster - 16.1%
CeeDee Lamb - 16%
Travis Kelce - 14.9%
Tony Pollard - 13.1%
Patrick Mahomes - 12.9%
Dalton Schultz - 12.8%
New Orleans Saints - 12.5%
Rhamondre Stevenson - 12.1%
Week 16 GPP Chalk Stack
Seattle Seahawks @ Kansas City Chiefs
With a game total of 48.5, this is a game many DFS players will be eyeballing in Week 16 GPPs. Since they're 10 point favorites, people will focus on stacking the Chiefs side. Trying to get different with the Seahwaks might be a challenge as well. They will be carrying some ownership too:
Geno Smith - 11.8%
Kenneth Walker - 10%
DK Metcalf - 16.1%
Marquis Goodwin - 8.4%
Obviously you can try fading this matchup, but it might be a mistake. Mahomes and company want to win this game and the Seahawks need this win to stay alive in the playoff hunt. Seattle is particularly bad vs TEs and RBs while the Chiefs are particularly bad against WRs and QBs. I say "bad," but it's really game environment necessity as teams have had to throw to keep up with the Chiefs. I expect Smith and the Hawks to have to do the same.
Tyler Lockett is OUT and Marquis Goodwin may not suit up either. This is a situation worth monitoring as players like Penny Hart, Laquon Treadwell, and Dareke Young may become relevant. Additionally, Kenneth Walker has not been practicing either.
Other Week 16 GPP Stacks
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
The more I investigate this matchup, the more I am digging it. To be clear, I expect a battle in this one, and I expect both defenses to show up. However, there is an alternate possible game script here as the Cowboys play at the 4th fastest pace in the league, and the Eagles play at the fastest. That could definitely slow down with Minshew as opposed to Hurts, but there is potential for a lot of offense here so I am targeting this matchup in Week 16 GPPs.
In his two starts last year, Minshew and the Eagles went 1 - 1 and put up 33 in the win and 26 in the loss. I'm not rushing over to DraftKings to stack Minshew, but his salary does leave plenty of room for activities. I'll be doing that as well as skinny stacking this game and using 2 to 3 players in lineups that feature other stacks. The Eagles ownership numbers are also depressed because Hurts will not be playing, so naturally I'm attracted to Eagles due to game theory.
New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings
Since Minnesota is incapable of playing defense, they've been getting into shootouts the last few weeks. Cousins made me look foolish on last Saturday's 3 game slate because I faded him, but I was looking like a genius through roughly 3 quarters of that one.
In any event, the Giants do present a more formidable defense than the Vikings recent opponents. On offense, the Giants will be trying to slow the game pace down, but they might ultimately not be able to as the Vikings play at the 7th highest pace in the NFL. Danny Carpenter is big on the low priced Giants receivers, which makes sense considering the Vikings are one of the worst teams in the league vs WRs.
As the ownership numbers tell us, Justin Jefferson could be the highest owned player in Week 16 GPPs. It may be difficult....but....gulp...fading him could be a great way to get different. I don't think I personally am going to do that, but it is a possible tactic to employ.
One-offs
Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are looking quite low owned this week. Sign. Me. Up.
Alvin Kamara started this week off looking highly owned, over 15% in fact. Over the last couple days his ownership has dropped. If that continues into Saturday, then I may have more interest. I currently have him at 11.4%. The matchup against the Browns is enticing, but I'd want him at least under 10%.
DJ Moore is still a thing. This thing has a matchup against one of the worst secondaries in the league.
Derrick Henry deserves his Week 16 GPP ownership projection against the Texans. I also have interest in whatever passing attack is going up against the Texans. However, the Texans have looked better in their recent matchups against the Chiefs and Chargers, so expecting much out of Davis Mills may not be in cards. The Chris Moore hype train may slow down with the return of Brandin Cooks.
I am still questionable about that CMC ownership number. I think he comes in lower than 25%.
Thanks for checking out my Week 16 GPP break down. Good luck in your Week 16 GPP contests!
Follow me on Twitter at @Borisnow00 and follow my man Danny Carpenter too!
Again, join the free Discord! Updates will be posted there on Saturday morning!