Hey all and welcome to the Week 18 GPP Recap! The final Sunday slate of the regular season was quite good to me. Because of the volatile news and changes in ownership projections, I ended up making many last minute pivots and they proved to be quite lucrative.
Let's get into it!
Week 18 GPP Ownership Review
Below are the highest owned players on the Week 18 GPP slate. To the left are the Sunday morning final ownership projections, to the right are the Week 18 GPP actual ones.
Kenneth Walker - 24.9% / 29.8%
Najee Harris - 16.4% / 26.3%
Cam Akers - 15.6% / 21.9%
Ja'Marr Chase - 15.5% / 21%
DK Metcalf - 12.9% / 20.2%
Stefon Diggs - 14% / 19%
Tyler Allgeier - 16.1% / 18.2%
Rashid Shaheed - 11.2% / 16.8%
Joe Burrow - 10.4% / 16.3%
Josh Allen - 13.8% / 14.8%
Garrett Wilson - 10.4% / 14.2%
Jonathan Williams - 14.9% / 14%
Zack Moss - 10.4% / 13.4%
Drake London - 14.6% / 13%
Miles Sanders - 14.1% / 12.7%
I was right to not fully trust this week's projections (look at me learning!). Trying to sift through who was going to play and how much was definitely a challenge in Week 18 GPPs. The discrepancies are indicative of that fluctuation.
It's true on the other end as well. There were some high projections that just didn't come through. Players like CMC, AJ Brown, Alvin Kamara, and Justin Jefferson came in much lower than their projections.
My Best DK Lineup - 150.26 DK Points
Allen
Walker
Moss
Diggs
Dotson
McKenzie
Likely
Lamb
Dolphins
The Winning Lineup - 196.82 DK Points
Wilson
Akers
Moss
Keenan Allen
Diggs
Zaccheus
Njoku
Jeudy
49ers
The Good
I won a GPP yesterday!!!
At about 12:50 PM I took a peek over on FanDuel and SuperDraft for Week 18 GPPs. I typically do not play much on either platform, but just before lock I usually head over there to see if there is any potential for overlay (i.e. contests not full). SuperDraft's Extra Point was not full so I made a quick lineup and never checked it again until right before I went to bed.
For those who are not familiar with SuperDraft, there are no salaries. Each player carries a multiplier, so his fantasy points ended up being multiplied by whatever his multiplier is. For example, Russell Wilson had a 1.45x multiplier which means his 24.1 fantasy points gets multiplied by 1.45 and that yields 34.97 points.
There's a good amount of players in my Week 18 GPP winning lineup who were not covered in my original Saturday morning article. My explanation for that is directly related to the different information that was coming out on Sunday morning (which we talk about on the Discord!). In this case, it was the news that the Ravens were not going to play their starters. That led to my decision to roster Isaiah Likely and his 1.65x multiplier as well as Russell Wilson and Jerry Jeudy. I figured (incorrectly) that since Baltimore was standing down, the Chargers would as well because their game became meaningless. The Chargers played their starters but lost to Russ and the Broncos anyway. Yikes.
I played zero CMC yesterday since I did not believe he would play a full game. Who could the beneficiary of that be? I figured it could be Elijah Mitchell who had a 1.7x multiplier and carried .7% ownership.
Other Week 18 GPP Good Results
The Alexander Mattison call really worked out but not necessarily in the manner that I thought. An injury to Dal Cook opened the door for a 4% owned Mattison to have 2 rushing TDs. Since I faded Cook entirely, this worked out nicely.
Zack Moss did indeed do himself and his career a solid yesterday.
Isaiah Likely became viable once the Ravens starters were ruled out.
Shout out to my colleague Danny Carpenter! His article helped convince me that I should at least give Russell Wilson a shot, albeit I only played him in like 3, but one hit!
I attached Diggs to Allen in all of my Allen lineups. A late TD saved the day.
Garrett Wilson, Najee Harris, and Cam Akers all did well and didn't sink your lineups.
I fully faded CMC. His 16.9 DK points were simply not enough at his salary.
I was under the field on Jonathan Williams. I didn't like the ownership attached to him without any sort of coaching confirmation that he was going to be RB1 and play every snap.
I ended up going away from Brady, Purdy, Burrow, and Geno.
The Neutral
I landed on playing 85% Josh Allen yesterday. He was the only one I was sure about. Would Brady play the whole game? Would Burrow need to ball out with the Ravens resting starters? Would Hurts be needed for an entire game? Would Purdy be needed to ball out? There were too many questions, so I just went predominantly with what I knew to be true: the Bills would be incentivized to win, and the Patriots would show up to play, so Allen was likely to see a full game. The freakish 2 kick return TDs ultimately capped Allen's upside though.
The Bad
Congratulations to the Seahawks and their fans (Natasha is one of them)! The offense didn't do enough to really earn me a DraftKings win though. My SuperDraft lineup was lucky to survive DK Metcalf who was one of my highest owned players yesterday. This is the rule: If Lockett is highly owned, play Metcalf. If Metcalf is highly owned, play Lockett.
I played a good amount of Deandre Carter. I attribute his fumble to him directly trying to achieve his 55 yard bonus.
Speaking of the Chargers, you're idiots. I played zero Keenan Allen in Week 18 GPPs because he shouldn't have been playing. Playing the starters is the reason Mike Williams is injured again.
I used Tyquan Thornton and Jakobi Meyers as my Patriots run backs in Bills stacks. Meyers was okay, but the player to own was DeVante Parker. Did I own him? Nope.
I had like one Brandin Cooks lineup.
I faded Drake London for Allgeier instead. Allgeier was fine, London was better.
Davis Mills was your highest scoring QB in Week 18 GPPs. He was .2% owned.
Thanks for checking out my Week 18 GPP Recap! I'll be around next week for a breakdown of the Wild Card Round.
Follow me on Twitter at @Borisnow00!