Hey all and welcome to my Week 6 GPP Review. Yesterday was a pretty good day for me. I hit some things spot on but still let some things sneak by me. Let's get right into it.
Week 6 GPP Ownership Review
Ownership matters, it just does. I made the decision to fade Josh Allen (26% owned) as the quickest means to try and win a Week 6 GPP. I didn't fade Allen because I think he sucks. I faded him because if one other QB has the possibility of outscoring him at lower ownership, then that is the best way to get ahead of other players. This game isn't about "picking the right players" (well it kind of is), it's about outplaying your opponents in GPP contests. The four QBs I picked yesterday to try and accomplish that goal were Burrow, Brady, Lamar, and Mahomes. One worked out, which is all I need.
Week 6 GPP Hits
Oh you're damn right I'm kicking things off with a victory lap around Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase. In fact, I took a victory lap around my own house when Chase scored his second TD.
The Saints basically played without a secondary yesterday. On Sunday morning I was monitoring this situation closely. I needed to know if both starting CBs, Lattimore and Adebo would be OUT, and they were. Additionally, starting free safety Marcus Maye was also OUT. Lastly, Tee Higgins was IN, so doubling Chase was going to be tough for the Saints. However, the real win here was that I identified that Joe Burrow would be low owned and in a good situation. I had him projected at 1.5% and he came in at 4.2% so a few others definitely identified this as well. I posted these updates on my Discord on Sunday morning (join here by the way!), and it was wheels up. The money I made yesterday was because of Burrow and Chase. Walking into the stadium with Chase's LSU jersey on was a nice touch by Mr. Burrow as well.
Most people were expecting a shootout yesterday between the Chiefs and Bills. In fact, 95% of bets came in on the over. Again, just another reminder that game theory is real. That being said, Stefon Diggs was the 3rd highest fantasy scorer on Sunday, and he was 25% owned. I mostly faded this game, but I did have some pieces. The chalk isn't always going to completely fail. I bet many who stacked Allen and Diggs probably still made some money yesterday, but they didn't win any of the contests I was in.
I really wanted to play Jonathan Taylor yesterday. Since he and Hines were ruled out, Deon Jackson stepped up to smash in this matchup as well.
I was hesitant on Walker initially, but the Akers and Taylor news pulled some of the ownership away from him. Walker has the makings of a star in this league. As of this writing, I expect Walker to be chalk against the Chargers in Week 7.
Tyler Higbee came in with much less ownership than I thought he would. I faded him. Go me!
I faded Tyler Lockett (34% owned in Week 6 GPPs) entirely. I rule!
The Neutral
Rhamondre Stevenson is what I would describe as "good chalk." At around 43% ownership in Week 6 GPP contests, he came in as the 2nd highest scoring RB on the slate. Playing him probably neither hurt you nor really helped you. If you didn't play him, and instead went with lower owned Jackson and Hall, you might have been able to build a different lineup that had Chase, Hill and Diggs. If you did that, you're having a good Monday.
Kenyan Drake was the 4th highest scoring RB. He was .06% owned and not in the winning lineup. Careful with this situation going forward.
Mark Andrews was the highest scoring TE. I mostly had him in stacks with Lamar though. Womp womp. I did have him in a few Burrow/Chase combos, so my wallet thanks him.
The highest owned DST in the Week 6 GPP slate was the Jaguars. I was surprised by that. I had a little but not much. In any event, the highest owned DST was also the lowest scoring. #GameTheory.
Week 6 GPP Misses
Tyreek Hill was my biggest miss of the day. I played a lot of Justin Jefferson, who wasn't terrible, but Hill was the move in this price range. I simply didn't trust Skylar Thompson to get him the ball. Many thought the same as me since Hill was 3% owned. Those who had the stones were rewarded when Teddy Bridgewater came into the game.
Michael Pittman was a huge miss. I, like most, went to the Indy RB and ignored this talented WR. Pittman was 1.5% owned. Matt Ryan was also a miss, but I would love to meet the person who predicted nearly 400 yards and 3 TDs for Ryan. (His mother doesn't count.)
Brando Aiyuk was 3% owned as well. The Falcons are a scrappy team and are undefeated against the spread this season. They did a good job of limiting the 49er ground game and forcing them to other areas of their offense. I'm keeping this in my mind when more people play Burrow and Chase next week.
I had a lot of DJ Moore. I have regrets. Also...I'd be shocked if Robbie (Robby?) Anderson isn't cut this week.
The Jets DST was a huge miss on my part as I played zero. The Packers had the 3rd highest team total yesterday. I had a lot of one-offs from the Packers, and while they did well (especially Robert Tonyan at 3% ownership), I did not think the Jets were capable of inflicting their will on Aaron Rodgers and company in Green Bay. I'll be curious to see what they do to Russell Wilson next week.
Lamar Jackson did not come through in the Week 6 GPP slate, but at low ownership I'll take a shot every week. Martindale was able to limit Lamar, but the Ravens lost this game due to self-inflicted wounds in the final minutes.
Something's not right in Tampa. The quickest answer is their offensive line which is banged up, but maybe their QB shouldn't be taking time off just before a game to go to an 81 year old's wedding and miss the walkthrough. The Steeler defense was missing a bunch of starters in their secondary and TJ Watt. I still don't know how this makes any sense.
Eno Benjamin ended up being the highest owned RB in Week 6 GPP contests. Had I known he would higher than Rhamondre, I would have faded. I'm getting real tired of putting my faith in the Cardinals, their lowsy offensive line, bad play calling, and terrible QB. I expect Kliff Kingsbury to be on the hot seat after Deandre Hopkins fails to be the answer to all their problems.
See you all for Week 7!
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