DFS Week 12

Time to bust down the door

It’s tough to keep knocking on the door of the green with my cash lineup.

I fell just short in all my tournaments with 143.14 points as the cash line cut off was right around 145 points.

But it’s the pivots to the wrong player makes all the different. I originally had a double stack with Dak Prescott as I had CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks in my lineup.

I changed two spots – Cooks and my flex. I changed my flex from Sam LaPorta to Tyler Lockett. Those changes kept me from cashing as Cooks and LaPorta both scored touchdowns on Thanksgiving.

SMH! Ugh!!

Also don’t forget to check out Boris’ DFS game-by-game breakdown!

I’m providing my spreadsheet and main cash and some GPP cores on my Patreon page: https://www.patreon.com/fantasyfbguru

Onto my Week 12 plays!

My Top Play

Quarterback

C.J. Stroud, Houston ($7,700): Stroud has thrown for 300 or more yards in three straight games, leading the Texans to a three-game winning streak.

Plus, with a win vs. Jacksonville, Houston will take over first place in the AFC South division after beating the Jaguars earlier in the season.

The total in the game is 47.5 at most of online books and Stroud has thrown the ball at least 37 times in the last three games.

Other Cash QBs

Josh Allen, Buffalo ($8,100)

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville ($6,400)

Allen bounced back after the Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey as Allen threw for more than 1 TD for the first time in three games. And Buffalo faces the Eagles bad pass defense. Lawrence is also in a good spot just like Stroud, but I believe Lawrence’s floor is lower than Stroud’s.

Sneaky GPP QB

Gardner Minshew II, Indianapolis ($5,100)

My Top Play

Running Back

Derrick Henry, Tennessee ($6,400): Henry has seen more than 20 touches in all of the Titans wins this season.

Tennessee is favored vs. Carolina’s bottom 2 defense vs. RB fantasy points.

That's enough debate points to start Henry in his erratic season.

Other Cash RBs

Deandre Swift, Philadelphia ($6,800)

Kyren Williams, LA Rams ($6,600)

Swift grades out well on my spreadsheet and he had a good matchup against Buffalo’s bottom 10 defense vs. RB fantasy points. Williams is coming back from injury as he returns from IR, but his last played game, he rushed for 158 yards and a TD vs. Arizona, who the Rams play on Sunday.

Sneaky GPP RB

Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh ($5,400)

My Top Play

Wide Receiver

Justin Watson, Kansas City ($3,000): He is a free square this week after pricing came out before the Chiefs’ Monday night loss to Philadelphia.

Watson led the team in targets and hauled in 5 passes for 53 yards and a TD. He was also targeted in the end zone on Patrick Mahomes’ lone interception.

Watson has seen 19 targets in his last three games and he only needs to score 7.5 points to reach value.

Other Cash WRs

Tank Dell, Houston ($6,900)

Christian Kirk, Jacksonville ($5,700)

Dell and Kirk will be key parts of their offenses as their teams battle for the AFC South Division lead. Dell had seen 35 targets the last three weeks, while Kirk has been up and down the last few weeks. The Jaguars have been on both ends of blowouts the last two weeks.

Sneaky GPP WR

Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis ($6,800)

My Top Play

Tight End

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo ($5,300): Kincaid has seen 31 targets the last three weeks and has been the Bills’ leading receiver with 26 catches.

This week Kincaid faces the Eagles defense 28th worse defense vs. TE fantasy points.

Other Cash TE

Evan Engram, Jacksonville ($4,200): As you have read so far in this story, my spreadsheet is in love with the Jacksonville-Houston matchup.

Engram has played well in three games vs. the Texans as he has had 6 or more catches in 2 of those games. The only game he didn’t perform well was the Jaguars’ blowout win late last season.

Sneaky GPP TE

Travis Kelce, Kansas City ($8,200)

My Top Play

DST

Kansas City ($3,100) at Las Vegas: The Chiefs defense is the reason they have the top spot in AFC West.

KC has averaged more than 4 sacks in their last four games and now face rookie Aidan O’Connell.

Other Cash DST

Denver ($3,200) home against Cleveland

Sneaky GPP DST

New Orleans ($3,600) at Atlanta

DK Cash Core

QB: C.J. Stroud, Houston

RB: Derrick Henry, Tennessee

WR: Justin Watson, Kansas City

TE: Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo

Thanksgiving DK by the Numbers

Cash Core

QB: Dak Prescott 35.24

RB: Christian McCaffrey 33.9

WR: CeeDee Lamb 17.3

TE: Tucker Kraft 9.5

QB: Brock Purdy 11.4, Jordan Love 26.62.

RB: Jahmyr Gibbs 11.3, David Montgomery 15.1, Antonio Gibson 6.7.

WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown 18.5, Brandin Cooks 17.2, Jameson Williams 7.1.

TE: George Kittle 4.9, Jake Ferguson 4.5.

DST: Seattle 8.0, Green Bay 15.0.

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