A breakthrough during the fun time of the season
This year has been tough in NFL DFS.
I’m seeing the fields becoming smarter as hitting the green in cash tournaments has been in the upper 140-to-150 points range this season.
But I finally found that green last week – I finished with 155.26 points thanks to Deebo Samuel’s final touchdown reception. I had the Samuel-Brock Purdy double stack in my lineup along with Tyreek Hill. Those three accounted for 106.56 points of my points total as I carried two snowflakes.
My best GPP lineup of the week finished with 179.46 points as I rode my cash trio and Christian McCaffrey.
I can’t complain too much about the sluggish season as I enjoy the late season part of the NFL schedule – spending time with family, Christmas music and plenty of football.
Also don’t forget to check out Boris’ DFS game-by-game breakdown!
I’m providing my spreadsheet and main cash and some GPP cores on my Patreon page: https://www.patreon.com/fantasyfbguru
My spreadsheet comes with a 7-day free trial. Check it out!
Onto my Week 14 plays!
My Top Play
Quarterback
Justin Fields, Chicago ($6,800): Fields has had his way running the ball against Detroit.
In his last three games vs. the Lions, he’s rushed for more than 100 yards in each game and has averaged 31.1 DraftKings in those three games.
He’s averaged 24.7 DK points in his two home game where he has played the whole game this season.
Other Cash QBs
Russell Wilson, Denver ($5,800)
Jake Browning, Cincinnati ($5,200)
Wilson has not put up any big DK points this season other than Week 2, but he’s been consistent. He’s averaged 17.68 DK points in his last five games and has a juicy matchup against the LA Chargers’ 31st-ranked pass defense. Browning exploded last Monday in the Bengals’ OT win at Jacksonville. The Bengals fashioned the offense to Browning’s strengths and with a healthy, talented cast receivers, Browning may lead Cincy to the playoffs.
Sneaky GPP QB
Josh Allen, Buffalo ($8,300) (he’s expected to lowered rostered is why he’s sneaky)
My Top Play
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco ($9,200): It just makes sense to play the highest price running back on the slate when his floor has been 25.5 DK points vs. NFC West Division foes this season.
In the 49ers’ first meeting with the Seahawks, CMC had 114 yards rushing with 2 TDs and added 5 catches for 25 yards.
He also had 28.8 DK points last year in his only matchup in a 49ers uniform vs. Seattle.
Other Cash RBs
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati ($6,100)
Zack Moss, Indianapolis ($5,900)
Depending on how much salary you need, both Mixon and Moss are fine plays in a game that has AFC playoff implications. Mixon continues to dominate the Bengals carries in the red zone as he has had 86.1 percent of the carries including more than 95 percent inside the 10. Moss may have not put up big numbers last week vs. Tennessee, replacing the injured Jonathan Taylor. But he dominated the backfield touches while playing 94 percent of the Colts offensive snaps.
Sneaky GPP RB
Jerrick McKinnon, Kansas City ($4,800)
My Top Play
Wide Receiver
D.J. Moore, Chicago ($6,500): Since Fields returned from IR, Moore has been targeted 13 and 9 times.
Moore has averaged 105 yards receiving in those two games, including 7 catches for 96 yards and a TD in the Bears’ last meeting with the Lions.
Other Cash WRs
Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati ($7,600)
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco ($6,800)
Chase has been targeted 18 times in Browning’s two starts, including 12 targets last week in his big 11-catch, 149-yard, and 1-TD game vs. the Jaguars. Samuel is also coming off a big game where he scored 3 TDs and had more than 100 yards receiving in the 49ers’ win vs. the Eagles. Samuel has had his way with Seattle – he’s averaging 119 total yards a game in five games.
Sneaky GPP WR
Jonathan Mingo, Carolina ($3,500)
My Top Play
Tight End
Tanner Hudson, Cincinnati ($2,800): Hudson rates as the top TE value on my spreadsheet this week.
He has scored 5.8 or more DK points in five straight games, while collecting at least 4 receptions in each game.
Other Cash TE
Brevin Jordan, Houston ($3,100): With Dalton Schultz missing another week, Jordan gives you another low-priced TE with some upside.
He caught 3 of 4 targets for 64 yards last week.
Sneaky GPP TE
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta ($3,700)
My Top Play
DST
Baltimore ($3,300) home against LA Rams: The Ravens defense is second in the NFL in yards allowed this season and has been a tough draw at home.
Baltimore has allowed 14.5 points, recorded 28 sacks and forced 6 turnovers in 6 games this season at M&T Bank Stadium.
Other Cash DST
Cleveland ($3,000) home against Jacksonville
Sneaky GPP DST
Minnesota ($3,100) at Las Vegas
DK Cash Core
QB: Josh Fields, Chicago
RB: Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco
WR: D.J. Moore, Chicago
TE: Tanner Hudson, Cincinnati
DK by the Numbers Week 13
Cash Core
QB: Brock Purdy 32.46
RB: Zack Moss 7.7
WR: Tyreek Hill 35.3
TE: Brevin Jordan 9.4
QB: Sam Howell 20.18, Russell Wilson 18.84, Derek Carr 10.94.
RB: Rhamondre Stevenson 3.9, Devin Singletary 5.0, Jaylen Warren 6.5, Najee Harris 9.7.
WR: Mike Evans 32.2, Michael Pittman Jr. 30.5, Elijah Moore 12.3.
TE: Tyler Conklin 6.5, George Kittle 10.8.
DST: Tampa Bay 7.0, Pittsburgh 2.0, New England 7.0.
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