***UPDATED 10-1-23 (0915)*** Hopefully it's not another too chalky week
We are only into the fourth week of the NFL season, and I’ve seen so many ups and downs in DFS.
Week 1 was disaster.
Week 2 was great.
Week 3 was full of chalky winners.
So I’m only 1-2 right with my cash lineups as I finished with 150.58 points, but I was outside the green by 12-18 points depending on the price range.
I did notice a lot of the winners were mainly playing GPP style lineups, which should subside as the season continues when the wrong chalky plays began to eat into their profits.
Hopefully, you were able to piece together a winning lineup as 12 of 17 suggested players scored 17.8 points or more last week (granted a lot of them were pretty chalky).
I will be providing my spreadsheet and main cash and some GPP lineups on my Patreon page: https://www.patreon.com/fantasyfbguru
Don't forget to check out Boris' game-by-game GPP breakdown when it's posted later today!
Onto My Top Plays of Week 4!
My Top Play
Quarterback
***UPDATED***
Aiden O'Connell, Las Vegas ($4,500): With Jimmy Garaoppolo declared out last night after last week's concussion, O'Connell leaps over Brian Hoyer to make the start for the Raiders today.
O'Connell was efficient during the preseason, completing 69.4 percent of his passes for 482 yards (7.7 per pass attempt) and adding 3 TDs.
And head coach Josh McDaniels has turned back-up QBs into standouts.
Other Cash QBs
Justin Fields, Chicago ($6,600)
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati ($6,500)
Russell Wilson, Denver ($5,800)
Fields is the other half of the Broncos-Bears game at QB. Even though he’s has be extremely sub-par to start the season, the Broncos’ dreadful defense may be the right remedy to jump-start his season. Burrow is still not 100 percent healthy but when you throw the ball 40-plus times for two straight games and now face the Titans’ pass funnel defense – only good things can happen, right? Wilson has thrown for more than 300 yards in his past two games, and he will have a healthy Jerry Jeudy to go along with Courtland Sutton and Marvin Mims Jr. in his receiving corps against the Bears’ middle of the road pass defense.
Sneaky GPP QB
Matthew Stafford, LA Rams ($5,700)
My Top Play
Running Back
Dameon Pierce, Houston ($5,100): I’m going with the cheaper Pierce as my top cash play at running back.
My spreadsheet this week points to builds with 4 WRs as the talent pool and matchups are deeper this week for WRs.
Pierce has been struggled running the ball this season with injuries across the Texans offensive line, but the Steelers are the third worst run defense in the NFL, giving up 151 yards a game. Add in that Pierce has seen 3 targets in each game this year gives you some receiving stats to boost a possible breakout running game.
Other Cash RBs
Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco ($9,200)
Zack Moss, Indianapolis ($6,000)
McCaffrey continued his touchdown scoring streak as he has scored a TD in 12 straight games including the playoffs. Plus he scored vs. the Cardinals last year in their game at Levi Stadium. Moss is the Colts’ de facto workhorse and has one more week to himself until Jonathan Taylor comes off of IR or gets traded. Moss touched the ball 54 times in the past two games while piling up 46.2 DraftKings points in the process.
Sneaky GPP RB
James Conner, Arizona ($5,900)
My Top Play
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen, LA Chargers ($7,900): Mike Williams is out for the season and he’s still way too cheap on DraftKings are enough of reasons to play Allen.
Add in he scored 48.5 DK points last week without a TD reception – those are some godly WR stats.
Now he faces the division-rival Las Vegas Raiders who are prone to give up the big pass play.
Other Cash WRs
Puka Nacua, LA Rams ($6,700)
Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas ($5,500)
Adam Thielen, Carolina ($4,500)
Nacua has been the fantasy darling to start the season at WR, filling in nicely for the injured Cooper Kupp. His target share is almost 35 percent and he should see plenty of targets in a game that is expected to be a back-and-forth affair. Meyers is the 2 in the Raiders’ 1-2 punch passing game behind Davante Adams. Meyers has seen 22 targets in the two games he has played. Thielen has the ‘revenge game’ narrative going for him this week and he’s been putting up solid numbers to make him playable. He has seen 23 targets in his last two games and his salary has only risen $600.
Sneaky GPP WR
Josh Downs, Indianapolis ($3,500)
My Top Play
Tight End
Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh ($3,400): Freiermuth was finally involved in the red zone for the Steelers’ passing game.
Despite his low target numbers, he still running a route on 70 percent of his pass plays and has seen 4 red zone targets for the season.
He will probably be the highest owned TE on the slate tomorrow.
Other Cash TEs
George Kittle, San Francisco ($5,100)
Gerald Everett, LA Chargers ($3,600)
Kittle may be a factor in the passing game if Deebo Samuel misses the game and the Cardinals can hang with the 49ers. Kittle saw 9 targets last week with Brandon Aiyuk out of the lineup. Everett has been the odd man out on scoring TDs in the Chargers offense. He has seen 12 targets but backup Donald Parham Jr. has caught 3 TDs. Everett is due.
Sneaky GPP TE
Dawson Knox, Buffalo ($3,100)
My Top Play
DST
Cleveland ($2,800): This price does not make sense.
The Browns are giving up 163.7 total yards a game this season – that’s right TOTAL yards.
Lamar who? this week!
Other Cash DST
Dallas ($4,000) home against New England
Philadelphia ($4,100) home against Washington
Sneaky GPP DST
New Orleans ($3,600) home against Tampa Bay
Sunday’s DK Cash Core
QB: Aiden O'Connell, Las Vegas
RB: Dameon Pierce, Houston
WR: Keenan Allen, LA Chargers
TE: Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh
DK by the Numbers
Cash Core
QB: Kirk Cousins 29.68
RB: Kenneth Walker III 30.6
WR: Justin Jefferson 30.9
TE: Taysom Hill 3.1
QB: Patrick Mahomes 25.68, Justin Herbert 32.3, Tua Tagovailoa 31.36.
RB: Tony Pollard 18.1, Travis Etienne Jr. 17.8, Josh Kelly 2.7, Brian Robinson Jr 7.0.
WR: Tyreek Hill 33.7, Keenan Allen 48.46, Adam Thielen 34.5.
TE: Travis Kelce 19.9, Mark Andrews 7.5, Hunter Henry 3.7.
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