Hey all and welcome to the Week 15 GPP Breakdown. If you haven't had a chance yet, check out my article about today's Week 15 GPP Saturday slate. This one is about Sunday's main slate so....
Let's get into it!
Week 15 GPP Ownership Report
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Derrick Henry - 21.8%
Austin Ekeler - 19.8%
Josh Jacobs - 17.7%
Amon-Ra St. Brown - 16.9%
Alvin Kamara - 16.3%
Davante Adams - 16.2%
CeeDee Lamb - 16%
Garrett Wilson - 15.8%
Chris Moore - 15.5%
Jerick McKinnon - 15%
Ja'Marr Chase - 14.7%
Denver Broncos - 14.3%
Keenan Allen - 14.3%
AJ Brown - 14%
Zonovan Knight - 12.2%
Week 15 GPP Stacks
I am not so sure there is going to be a "chalk" stack this week. There are some that will carry ownership, but what the numbers above suggest is that no one QB will be overwhelmingly owned on Sunday. So let's break down the possibles.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs v Texans has an over/under of 49, the highest on the Week 15 GPP slate. At -14, this means that the Chief implied team total is somewhere around 31 points. That's high.
I got Patrick Mahomes at 11% ownership, the highest QB on the slate. Travis Kelce is coming in around 10% and JuJu is looking like 11.5%.
The problem with this play is twofold: First, can the Texans keep up in any sort of way that keeps the Chiefs looking for points? Second, if the game is over by the 3rd quarter, will Mahomes and the starters still be on the field? The latter is less problematic because if that's the case, Mahomes and company probably did a lot to get them there. Chiefs rank 3rd worst against opposing QBs FWIW; Davis Mills is around 2% owned in a game where he will have to throw.
The second problem is that the Texans are horrific vs the run. They are the worst team in the league, and the team that is second isn't really that close to them. The Chiefs could elect to use Pacheco and the run game to soundly defeat the Texans this week.
Dallas Cowboys @ Jacksonville Jaguars
With a game total of 48, folks are going to go here as well. I have Dak as the second highest owned QB in Week 15 GPPs. My problem with stacking this game is that I'm bullish on the Boys' defense. They have some injuries along their defensive line, but they should find success in disrupting the Jaguar offense. The Cowboys are tops in the league against most positions, including best in the league vs TEs, so I wouldn't race to play Evan Engram again this week.
The Jaguars defense is top 10 worst against most positions so the Cowboys should be able to have their way. Should is a big concept though as they didn't really look ready against the Texans last week.
I'll play parts of this game, like Pollard and Zeke and/or some Kirk and Jones, but I don't foresee myself stacking either QB.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
The Eagles and Bears have a 48.5 total so this game should garner some interest. The Bears aren't all that bad against opposing QBs and WRs, but they are susceptible to the rushing attack. This could be another Miles Sanders week, but it also makes sense why Hurts is coming in lower owned compared to his colleagues.
Justin Fields is looking at potential sub 5% ownership. I have interest in that. Yes, Mooney and potentially Claypool are out. Also, Hurts and Fields have similar play styles, which means that the Philly defensive unit has had 4 or so months practicing against this exact player. As such, I can see the argument both for and against Fields.
Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers
This is probably my favorite place to stack in Week 15 GPP contests. Justin Herbert and the Chargers are beginning to look fully healthy and like a fully armed and operational battle station. At 46 total points, this game is a little lower than the others and thus hopefully not as many will flock to it despite the great matchup for the Charger passing attack.
The Titans are 2nd worst vs QBs, the worst against WRs, and 5th worst against TEs. Additionally, their top 2 CBs are banged up so they look ripe for the picking by Herbert and company. I have interest in both Allen and Williams and maybe even both in the same lineup with their QB.
On the other side, it makes sense why Henry's ownership numbers are high again. The Chargers are the 5th worst team in the league vs RBs.
Week 15 GPP One-offs, Small Stacks, and Notes
Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase will likely be a pair that I always consider. Chase is carrying some ownership but Burrow is not. We just saw what Brock Purdy did to Tampa right? If only Bengals beat reporters would do their job. A Bucs RB or WR could certainly be in play too. I wish I knew how to quit you Chris Godwin! Additionally, Trey Hendrickson is likely not playing, which is a good thing for the hopes of the Bucs offense.
Side note for the above, Vita Vea may not play for the Bucs. That's a huge break for the Bengals RBs.
I'm seeing a lot of variety around Nelson Agholor's ownership. Seems some sources are buying in heavy on the revenge narrative here.
I love playing a player a week after he disappoints at massive ownership. Hello Amon-Ra!
Lions remain terrible against QBs and WRs, I can see the ownership extending toward Garrett Wilson.
Deandre Hopkins is the pivot at the high salary WR position in Week 15 GPPs.
The New England Patriots RB situation is a horror show from a DFS perspective. There are 4 RBs in play this Sunday.
One should not forget Chris Olave.
Cordarelle Patterson appears to be a forgotten man.
RIP DJ Moore, one of the best receivers in the league at 5% ownership.
Thanks for checking out my Week 15 GPP break down. Good luck in your Week 15 GPP contests!
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